tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-480286723085387632.post1782979765534190962..comments2023-07-04T03:57:58.886-07:00Comments on Alberta Real Estate Watch: Don Campbell - Analyzing the sales pitch (II)BearClawhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-480286723085387632.post-32456085782315849132011-03-26T18:24:07.787-07:002011-03-26T18:24:07.787-07:00Chris,
1) Good point. I updated the post.
2) The ...Chris,<br />1) Good point. I updated the post.<br /><br />2) The chart doesn't say anything about positive cash flow or mortgage pay down but instead leads to price increases. There is mention of cash flow later on in the context of outsiders investors buying those properties before Albertans can.<br /><br />3) Don's post sounds urgent and implies we are in a pre-boom buying window. He writes that outsiders are 'jumping in with both feet' and that last time this happened the 'markets took off'. Personally, I don't think this refers to 20 years into the future.BearClawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15714953167582532109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-480286723085387632.post-59223968448082459012011-03-26T12:42:14.416-07:002011-03-26T12:42:14.416-07:00I'm not a member of REIN and don't agree w...I'm not a member of REIN and don't agree with it's business model, but REIN actually works for some. Just like everything else in life if you rely on just one source, you get what you get. Which most of the time is not good.<br /><br />I do agree with REIN and what Chris just posted though. Price in Alberta will not be going down much and most likely be going up due to the economic climate. The just won]t be going up at the same pace they did during the in-migration boom we had from mid-2005 to early 2007. And yes the majority of the price increase was caused by in-migration, not low interest rates, cheap available credit or Government policy. If that was the case other Canadian cities would have seen similar price appreciation graphs like Alberta, but they didn't. The saw appreciation, but not the same extent as Alberta.DaBullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09557859803078792314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-480286723085387632.post-80784143725371372832011-03-26T11:50:52.569-07:002011-03-26T11:50:52.569-07:00Three quick thoughts: First, I don't think Don...Three quick thoughts: First, I don't think Don's trying to say that the progression they indicate on that illustration is able to "predict exactly the amount of future price increase".<br /><br />Second, price appreciation is the least of the three ways to make money with investment real estate (the others being mortgage pay-down and positive cash-flow). That's clear from the first few points on the graph (increased rental demand and decreased vacancies). <br /><br />Third, if you're going to have a serious conversation about real estate, economic growth and investment, you've gotta look more than 5 years in either direction. The economic developments taking place now have measurable impacts 20 years in the future, and we're also looking back to similar situations as far back as the 1970's. Now is more comparable to 2001 than 2005 or later.Chris Davieshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04812219660705290168noreply@blogger.com