Calgary: Are homes selling quickly?

From Bob Truman's what's new page (emphasis mine):

Feb 20
With 4690 single family homes on the market, we have more than double the inventory compared to Feb 2007, yet prices continue to rise and the time required to sell a house has gone down dramatically. Over the past week, it took an average of 37 days for a home to sell. In January, the average was 50.

This may be pedantic but I would like to point out that there is a difference between the Days on Market (DOM) and the time required to sell a house. Sales are low and inventory is high so how could homes be selling faster? Here are a set of factors that may be impacting Days on Market:

• Days on Market does not account for the time if a home was previously listed on the MLS. Sometimes homes are relisted so that they appear "fresh".
• Days on Market is calculated from the set of homes that actually sell. Homes that remain listed are not included.
• In December the portion of newly listed homes is smaller because there are relatively few new listings in November and December and many remaining listings from spring/summer. In February there is a higher proportion of newly listed (and relisted) homes.

Another stat to consider is the Month Of Inventory. This represents the amount of time at the current sales rate it would take to sell all the inventory.

SFH from Feb 1-20 (Mike's Site)
Sales: 827
Inventory: 4703
MOI = (4703/827)*(20/30)
MOI = 3.8 (buyer's market)

US comparison update

Below is a table of median single family homes across the U.S. with some Canadian locations thrown in. No adjustment was required in currency. Canadian info from January MLS reports. US data from CNN.

The U.S. median fell from 220K to 206K since last time I posted.

oungstown-Warren-Boardman	OH-PA	$72.60
Saginaw-Saginaw Township North	MI	$74.90
Decatur	IL	$75.00
Elmira	NY	$81.20
South Bend-Mishawaka	IN	$86.30
Ft. Wayne	IN	$90.90
Canton-Massillon	OH	$98.10
Erie	PA	$98.60
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island	IA-IL	$102.10
Toledo	OH	$104.00
Buffalo-Niagara Falls	NY	$105.40
Dayton	OH	$106.60
Springfield	IL	$108.60
Akron	OH	$109.10
Lansing-E.Lansing	MI	$109.60
Binghamton	NY	$110.00
Topeka	KS	$112.30
Rockford	IL	$113.20
Beaumont-Port Arthur	TX	$113.60
Wichita	KS	$113.80
Indianapolis	IN	$114.00
Waterloo/Cedar Falls	IA	$115.40
Cumberland	MD-WV	$116.60
Pittsburgh	PA	$116.90
Peoria	IL	$118.50
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor	OH	$118.60
Amarillo	TX	$120.20
Springfield	MO	$120.70
Rochester	NY	$120.80
Jackson	MS	$120.90
Chattanooga	TN-GA	$121.60
Spartanburg	SC	$121.80
Charleston	WV	$122.90
Grand Rapids	MI	$124.30
Memphis	TN-MS-AR	$124.30
Kankakee-Bradley	IL	$124.40
Gary-Hammond	IN	$124.60
Syracuse	NY	$126.30
Little Rock-N. Little Rock	AR	$127.50
Appleton	WI	$130.90
Cincinnati-Middletown	OH-KY-IN	$132.40
Louisville	KY-IN	$133.00
Detroit-Warren-Livonia	MI	$133.30
Saint Louis	MO-IL	$133.50
El Paso	TX	$133.60
Oklahoma City	OK	$133.80
Cedar Rapids	IA	$134.90
Shreveport-Bossier City	LA	$135.40
Omaha	NE-IA	$135.70
Columbus	OH	$137.20
Mobile	AL	$137.40
Corpus Christi	TX	$137.90
Lincoln	NE	$138.10
Fargo	ND-MN	$141.70
Sioux Falls	SD	$142.40
Lexington-Fayette	KY	$142.90
Montgomery	AL	$143.40
Champaign-Urbana	IL	$143.60
Bismarck	ND	$144.70
Columbia	SC	$144.90
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	TX	$145.00
Bloomington-Normal	IL	$145.30
Kansas City	MO-KS	$148.20
Green Bay	WI	$148.90
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land	TX	$150.30
Gulfport-Biloxi	MS	$150.40
Greensboro-High Point	NC	$150.70
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville	FL	$151.30
San Antonio	TX	$151.70
Des Moines	IA	$152.60
Reading	PA	$153.60
Knoxville	TN	$155.00
Ocala	FL	$155.10
Greenville	SC	$155.40
Birmingham-Hoover	AL	$156.10
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent	FL	$156.40
New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner	LA	$158.20
Glens Falls	NY	$163.90
Atlanta Sandy Springs-Marietta	GA	$164.30
Baton Rouge	LA	$169.70
Yakima	WA	$170.60
Kennewick-Richland-Pasco	WA	$172.40
Jacksonville	FL	$177.60
Durham	NC	$178.10
Tallahassee	FL	$180.90
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach	FL	$181.10
Austin-Round Rock	TX	$185.70
Farmington	NM	$186.50
Hagerstown-Martinsburg	MD-WV	$192.10
Spokane	WA	$194.10
Albuquerque	NM	$195.90
Gainesville	FL	$196.70
Boise City-Nampa	ID	$198.00
Dover	DE	$199.60
Albany-Schenectady-Troy	NY	$199.70
Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater	FL	$201.60
Pittsfield	MA	$202.60
Charleston-North Charleston	SC	$204.50
U.S.	Median	$206.20
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord	NC-SC	$204.70
Springfield	MA	$206.40
Colordo Springs	CO	$210.70
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington	MN-WI	$217.20
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis	WI	$219.50
Cape Coral-Fort Myers	FL	$225.30
Richmond	VA	$225.70
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington	PA-NJ-DE-MD	$226.80
Madison	WI	$227.70
Salt Lake City	UT	$229.10
Denver-Aurora	CO	$230.10
Salem	OR	$231.20
Raleigh-Cary	NC	$235.60
Tucson	AZ	$235.80
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News	VA-NC	$236.00
Eugene-Springfield	OR	$237.60
Orlando	FL	$240.40
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale	AZ	$241.70
Portland-South Portland-Biddeford	ME	$242.10
Kingston	NY	$246.10
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton	PA-NJ	$246.50
Norwich-New London	CT	$252.40
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford	CT	$258.00
Worcester	MA	$259.00
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet	IL	$261.00
New Haven-Milford	CT	$268.80
Providence-New Bedford-Fall River	RI-MA	$273.20
Las Vegas-Paradise	NV	$273.50
Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice	FL	$274.10
Baltimore-Towson	MD	$275.10
Atlantic City	NJ	$278.80
Saskatoon*	SK	$284.50
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton	OR-WA	$290.50
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville	CA	$297.60
Reno-Sparks	NV	$301.30
Trenton-Ewing	NJ	$306.80
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario	CA	$338.00
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach	FL	$345.90
Edmonton	AB	$364.00
NY: Edison	NJ	$370.30
Boulder	CO	$371.10
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue	WA	$377.50
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy	MA-NH**	$380.70
Barnstable Town	MA	$382.30
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria	DC-VA-MD-WV	$400.10
Calgary	AB	$410.00
NY: Newark-Union	NJ-PA	$435.80
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island	NY-NJ-PA	$457.40
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk	CT	$460.20
NY: Nassau-Suffolk	NY	$461.70
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana	CA	$509.70
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos	CA	$522.90
New York-Wayne-White Plains	NY-NJ	$523.30
Honolulu	HI	$625.30
Fort McMurray*	AB	$632.50
Anaheim-Santa Ana	CA	$657.40
Greater Vancouver**	BC	$742.50
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont	CA	$777.30
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara	CA	$845.30

*Used average price for Saskatoon, Fort Mac
**Used Benchmark detached price for Greater Vancouver

Ctrl+C Ctrl+V

Talk about media access! Royal LePage put out a press release Jan. 31 and it has been copied and pasted in many of Canada's major papers.

Canmore retreats hot property
Calgary Sun

...housing market uncertainty in the U.S. is prompting more Canucks to buy winter retreats in Canada...

Tight market fuels winter retreat boom
Globe and Mail

While a $650,000 condo or $1.4-million chalet in Whistler sounds pricey, their comparative affordability has Europeans buying, Mr. Soper said

Slick chalets replace weekend snow forts
Globe and Mail

“High levels of demand combined with limited inventory have pressured winter recreational property prices upward — a trend expected to continue well into the future,” said Lisa da Rocha, vice-president of marketing communications at Royal LePage.

Winter vacation properties in Canada a hot market
Edmonton Journal

...Canadians in search of winter recreational properties are casting a jaundiced eye on the subprime-tainted market south of the border. Instead, they are favouring properties in Canada, which is helping to drive up prices across the country...

Canmore condo prices soar
Edmonton Journal

"We expect to see strong demand from three types of purchasers over the next few years: baby boomers approaching retirement or inheriting wealth, professionals who are able to work from satellite or home offices and foreign visitors looking to get away from crowded cities, Hawker said.

Canadians nervous about buying U.S. real estate
Calgary Herald

... the uncertainty clouding the U.S. housing market now has many Canadians favouring properties north of the border.

Canadian winter recreational properties a hot market
Financial Post

Canadians in search of winter recreational properties are casting a jaundiced eye on the subprime-tainted market south of the border, according to a study by Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

Recreational market in flux
Toronto Star

Canadians aren't just looking south for real estate this winter, with recreational properties across the country seeing relatively strong demand, according to a report released yesterday by Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

Snow the hot ticket in recreation homes
Vancouver Sun

Canadians are homebodies when it comes to their winter recreational property desires, particularly in these times of U.S. economic turmoil, according to a Royal LePage survey.

The Calgary Herald, Edmonton Journal and the Vancouver Sun are all owned by CanWest Global Communications. Here is an extensive list of CanWest Holdings in case you are concerned about media concentration.

What the MSM is serving.

The article Women lead revolution in home ownership serves up the 'conventional wisdom' of home ownership with little analysis.

Atkinson fits the profile of individual Canadian women homeowners who are single, financially savvy and most likely to purchase a condominium, according to a new national poll released Thursday.

"I never wanted to rent because I figured it was a waste of money.

Seven in 10 Canadian women homeowners bought their properties as a "good investment," with 29 being their average age when they made their first purchase.

Michelle Atkinson, 26, who entered the real estate market 21/2 years ago, is part of an emerging demographic of women who are single, financially savvy and opting for condominiums.

"With more and more Canadian women marrying later in life or remaining single, we're seeing the emergence of the young, financially savvy woman who's taking on the commitments, joys and responsibilities of owning a home," said Joan Dal Bianco, vice-president of real estate secured lending for TD Canada Trust.

"Right across the country, they are investing in themselves and in their futures by becoming homeowners, and in doing so are strongly reinforcing their financial and personal freedom," she said.

Do not let these empty assertions from the financial industry influence you. Try to separate information from catch-phrases and then do the math yourself.

Edmonton Real Estate Bord June Press Release

Look at the June press release from the Edmonton Real Estate Board from their 2007 Archive.

Sales remained strong as buyers took advantage of a wider selection of homes available. At the midpoint for the year 13,282 residential properties have been sold through the MLS® valued at almost $4.5 billion. That is 1,712 more properties than the same time last year. Single month sales in June were up 20% from last month and 15% from June 2006.

The reference to increasing sales was false. Single month sales in June were down 20% from last month and up 1% from June 2006. They pulled this sentence from their online press release without issuing a correction as seen in their previous stats page.

Sales remained strong as buyers took advantage of a wider selection of homes available. At the midpoint for the year 13,282 residential properties have been sold through the MLS® valued at almost $4.5 billion. That is 1,712 more properties than the same time last year.

If they would have put an official correction instead simply removing the wrong information it wouldn't have come back to damage their credibility. That's it for this dead horse.

What's New (Calgary)

The number of unoccupied single family homes on the market increased from 893 last January to 1355 this month. Condos went from 393 to 808. Those numbers have increased substantially.Vacant Listings

Sales of single family homes will be down 30% from last January. Condos down almost 40%.

Sales of condos this month should turn out to be very close to the long-term average. Since 2001, we've averaged 437 condo sales in January. As of Jan 27 this year, there are 375 sales. This is despite a population increases of 12.4% between 2001-2006 and a booming economy. Population Growth

Single family home inventory has grown by an average of 28 homes per day since Jan. 7. There was a sharp drop after Dec 31 due to expired listings.

(un)Balanced Market

There have been some assertions recently that Calgary is in a "balanced" market from Bob Truman's What's New page.

Jan 25
It's a nice change from the past two years for everyone. It's taking an average of 52 days to sell a house, and going down. Traditionally, it would take a house 45 - 50 days to sell. Prices should fluctuate slightly from month-to month, but I don't expect any dramatic rise or fall. March, April and May will return as the usual big months for sales. The balanced market, as predicted, is here.

Jan 21
Sales of single family homes are about equal with historical averages for the first 20 days of January. With 628 sales so far this year, we're one ahead of the 7-year average of 627. The last time we had anything close to a normal balanced market was in 2005, and that year there were 560 sales. The average price in 2005 was $268,306. That's a 69% gain in three years.

Jan 12
The average price of single family homes in Calgary has risen $10,000 in the first 11 days of 2008. The median price has dropped $4,000. Condo avg price is down $4,000, median is up $3,000. So far in 2008, it looks like the balanced market is here and functioning well.

What does balance market mean? Here is the definition of "balance"

A state of equilibrium or parity characterized by cancellation of all forces by equal opposing forces.

Looking at the stats this January has not seen a balance between buyers and sellers. Between Jan 1-21 the sales/new listing ratio is around 30%*. This is low even when going back to "balanced" years before the boom.

The CREB used to define balanced market as between 2-3.5 months inventory before starting to play games with charts. Andrew Kyle, determined that on Jan 2 Calgary was in a buyer's market by the month's inventory of around 4.5. How many months inventory are we at considering the sales between Jan 1-24 (Mike's site)?

Months inventory= (Inventory / Sales ) x (24/30)
SFH = (3992/798)*(24/30) = 4 months
Condo = (1926/327)*(24/30) = 4.71 months

Buyers market according to Months inventory.
Buyers market according to Sales to Listing ratio.
Buyer market.

Also looking at Andrew's site shows that Days on Market has decreased fairly quickly starting in January in past years. We may be following that pattern again as spring market heats up but higher in absolute terms.

*Sales/New Listings ratio may be in fact higher due to relistings
The (24/30) part of the equation is to adjust for only 24 days of sales.