Calgary Stats June 2011

Calgary Sales

Calgary Stats December 2010

Sales decreased last month but not as much as expected.


New Listings fell dramatically as expected this time of the year.


On a seasonally adjusted basis sales have partially recovered when compared to the dismal pace set this spring.

Fewer new listings are coming onto the market now when compared to the rate earlier this year. This will be a key indicator to watch going into next year as the unknown variable is how many will be re-listed and how motivated they are to sell.



The sales to new listing ratio improved on a seasonally adjusted basis as sales held up better than expected.


The last chart shows sales, new listings and inventory over the last 5 years.

Raw data from Bob Truman's site
Explanation of benchmarks

Happy New Year!

Calgary Stats November 2010

Sales were little changed in November compared to the previous month where normally a drop would be expected.


After a spike earlier this year new listings have more closely tracked the rate equivalent to the 2nd half of 2009.

See the sales surge? Looking at a seasonally adjusted chart it's more like a modest bounce from depressed levels. Not a distressed market but not quite a robust one either.


Seasonally adjusted new listings have been holding roughly the same level as the 2nd half of 2009.


The sales to new listing ratio is stuck around 50%. This has improved from earlier this year due to lower listings and a higher seasonally adjusted sales rate.



The last chart shows sales, new listings and inventory over the last 5 years.

Raw data from Bob Truman's site
Explanation of benchmarks

Just a blip

Diane Scott, president of the Calgary Real Estate Board, called the May MLS data "just a blip."

"We still expect a steady market for the balance of the year," she said.

Calgary Home Sales take May hit
Monthly data viewed as 'just a blip'
June 17th, 2010

Increase that 'blip' to 5 months because sales have been weak since January. This is what I had to say about sales several months ago:

Calgary stats for January have been posted by Bob Truman and it is clear they have deteriorated on a seasonally adjusted basis. Normally we could expect a 27% increase from December to January, but instead sales were flat. They have moved closer to a rate equivalent to the six months of the financial crisis labeled scorched earth on the chart below.

Even Gregory Klump is less delusional about the sales slowdown.

Greg Klump, chief economist with CREA, said the combination of changes to mortgage regulations in April and rising mortgage rates pulled forward a number of sales into April that would have otherwise taken place at a later date.

"From the standpoint of afford-ability, we see sales activity softening going forward because of marginally higher interest rates as well the strength of activity in the first half of this year will be at the expense of sales activity in the second half of this year," said Klump.

From Mike Fotious site June sales look really bad yet again, as in another month of "scorched earth". Make that sales blip six months and counting.

Calgary: Even more listings

Sales in Calgary improved in March but are still below the pace set in the 2nd half of 2009.




Listings this month moved up closer to "stampede" - a rate equivalent to the first half of 2008.





The seasonally adjusted sales/listing ratio fell to 43%. The increase in listings was more significant than those in sales.


This should lead to an environment of falling prices but instead they were quite strong in March. I think the correlation between this ratio and prices will re-emerge shortly.

The fifth consecutive month of falling seasonally adjusted sales/listing ratio clearly indicates the market has weakened from the 2009 bounce. It will be interesting to see how new listings change when prices begin to fall. Will sellers be less motivated to sell into a weaker market similar to 2009 or will they continue to rush to the exists like they did in the first half of 2008?

Perspective

Consider the Calgary Herald Article "Housing Bubble Talk dismissed by board". In the article they cite some numbers which imply market strength.

A strong February market could mark the beginning of what could be a return to a more traditionally active spring market.

Last month, the board reported 1,035 detached, single-family homes changed hands within the resale housing market in Calgary's city limits -- an increase of 36 per cent compared to January.

There was also a 43-per-cent jump in the number of resale condos sold.

February is described as a strong month because of an increase of sales, even though this increase follows a normal historical pattern.

Contrary to this pattern, January actually decreased from December, therefore an increase from these levels is not surprising.

This is why I believe it is important to look at seasonally adjusted data to clearly see market trends. I would describe sales in February as "fairly weak" but not as terrible as the rate of sales during the financial crisis.

Although the number of new listings moved up by nearly five per cent last month, the two-month total for January to February is still down nearly four per cent compared to the same period last year.

Here they are compare listings to the previous year. My take is that listings are increasing at a faster rate this year than last.

SFH Listings Jan-Feb (CREB)
2009: 2068-2057
2010: 1822-2154

"The market is tightening and we are seeing a moderate rise in the number of competing offers, but Calgary's market remains in a healthy, stable position," says Scott. The average price of detached homes hit $458,254 in February, an increase of four per cent from the previous month and up 10 per cent from a year ago.

On the condo side, the average selling price was nearly unchanged from January at $282,880 -- and up five per cent compared to last year.

"There is a spring in the step of Calgary homebuyers as we get ready for the spring market," says Scott.

The market has gone from "fragile to fervent" in 12 months, she says -- adding she foresees strong activity in the spring as consumers continue to take advantage of low mortgage rates and overall afford-ability prior to expected rate hikes in the second half of this year.

The market went from fragile to fervent and has now moved back down according the seasonally adjusted sales/listing ratio.



A few things the article failed to mention about the increase of sales due to higher rates. If people are buying earlier than they would have otherwise to beat rate increases then one would expect a similar decrease in sales afterwards. There was no mention of the temprary nature of these low interest rates (standard term of 5 years) and their effect on asset valuations.

Canwest Global: Buy Now!

CanWest Global reported on the Calgary housing market.

Oops, that was Canwest stock price. 45 cents.

The story is here somewhere I'm not saavy enough to embed or link it. Go find it.

Reporter:

...falling prices and lower interest rates are creating a perfect storm for homebuyers. As Vindu Surri reports some lenders are even sweetening the deal to help you cash-in on the cooling economy

....

Mortgage guy:

"..Its almost like a free downpayment, where the lender actually supplies the borrower with the downpayment for the mortgage. Interest rates just a slight bit higher maybe 1 point 1 and a half points higher than normal and that downpaymnet is forgivable after 5 years."

...

Reporter

The free downpayment is unlike the zero downpaymnet which was eliminated last year.

Adding 1 to 1.5 to the rate over 5 years will end up costing 5.0-7.5% (neglecting compunding interest) so assuming the downpayment is 5% it is certainly not free.

Also the mortgage broker in the story reminded us of a very important fact

Canada Mortgage and Housing and there are some other mortgage insurance institutions that will protect the lender if someone defaults on their mortgage.

Looks like mortgage originators are able to shift the risks of "innovative" mortgage products. hmmm... sound familiar? Volker had it right (paraphrased) The best innovation in the world of finance was the automatic teller.

Inconvenient Stats

Another terrible article from the Calgary Herald. Resale market gathers strength.

Maybe it was the weather, maybe it was wanting to start the new year on an optimistic note, or maybe people were just being spontaneous.

Whatever the reason, as January moved along there seemed to be more open house signs popping up around the city -- and "for sale" signs with "sold" stickers slapped on them.

By the end of the month, January was slightly stronger for sales than December.

There is a predictable seasonal trend with real estate sales. Past years have followed this pattern where sales in January increase over December. Even in weakening markets, such as 2008, sales increase in January. Single family sales from Mike's stats:
Dec'07 846
Jan'08 1083

Dec'08 449
Jan'09 550

The Calgary Real Estate Board says 550 single-detached homes inside the city limits changed hands in January, up from 449 in December.

As well, 225 condominiums were sold, 20 more than the previous month.

Outside the city in the rural communities, sales in January reached 148, up from 113 for December.

"Indeed, it is a tough market (for sellers), but I'm pleased to see sales picking up over December," says CREB president Bonnie Wegerich. "Although numbers are down from January 2008, we are seeing increased activity and more interest from buyers."

Ron Stanners, a past-president for the board and broker/owner of Max-Well South Star Realty, says activity among realtors in his office picked up in January by about 55 per cent from December.

"Sales are up, that's a good sign," he says.

Note that all the sales comparisons are made to last month.

"And the flow of listings has slowed. I think a large number of investors have sold or rented their properties, which is one of the issues that has been affecting the market."

The number of new single-detached resale home listings added to the market last month totalled 2,068, down from 3,023 for the same month a year ago--with the comparative month-end inventories almost unchanged at about 4,000.

The condo inventory also held steady at near 1,900.

"While there's still a good selection of homes to choose from, we are seeing a slow but steady decrease in our inventory," says Wegerich. "As the inventory is reduced, we will see a return to a more stable market."

It is disingenuous to compare sales to last month but inventory and listings to last year. New listings for single family homes from CREB are below showing a large but seasonal monthly increase this January.

Dec'07 984
Jan'08 3023

Dec'08 836
Jan'09 2068

Stanners has been in the business long enough to know there will always be ups and downs, particularly in the Calgary marketplace.

"This market is not that bad -- price declines were minimal from December," says Stanners.

For January, the board reports the average price at $413,049,down from$417,398 in December. The condo average slipped to $270,940, declining from $274,919.

Now we are back to monthly comparisons. Below are average prices from CREB (SFH/Condo)

Dec'07 444,769 / 304,719
Jan'08 455,297 / 311,232

Dec'08 417,398 / 274,919
Jan'09 413,049 / 270,940

But Stanners says that because 2006 and 2007 were so volatile, it's difficult to make comparisons.

He says that 2004 and 2005 were "good years" and compared to them, the 2008 market was only about 20 per cent off.

Here he is comparing the total sales in 2008 to previous years. Using this measure sales are down 27% from 2005 and only 13% from 2004. Source CMHC Housing Market Outlook.

2004: 26,511
2005: 31,569
2006: 33,027
2007: 32,176
2008: 23,136

However, it is worth noting that the market suffered a further deterioration in sales since fall of 2008. Sales this January are down 45% from 2005 levels (Source Mike Fotiou). Also it's not difficult to make comparisons to 2006 and 2007. Watch me. (SFH January sales)

2005: 1002
2006: 1445
2007: 1497
2008: 1083
2009: 550

Sales are down 62% from 2006 and 63% from 2007 levels.

From a financial aspect, Stanners also says buyers should be getting into the market sooner than later.

"If you bought a home today and the price dropped 10 per cent in the next year and mortgage rates went up one per cent, it would still cost you less to buy today -- and you'd have the home paid off a year earlier," he says.

This is false. Lets compare two buyers with 25 year amortizations.

Buyer A

Price $300,000

Down $30,000

Initial Balance $270,000

Initial Rate 4.5%

Payment $1494.38

Buyer B

Price $270,000

Down $30,000

Initial Balance $240,000

Initial Rate 5.5%

Payment $1464.94

For this example assume Buyer A buys immediately and takes out a 5-year fixed and Buyer B waits one year and then takes a 4-year fixed rate (for convenience inthis example). After 5 years both buyers will have similar financing options so we can focus on the outstanding mortgage balance after 5 years and the cost of payments. I will neglect the first year of payments as one buyer would be renting and the other owning and also assume buyer B did not save any additional funds for downpaymnet. The results are below after 5 years (using RBC mortgage calculator):

Buyer A

Total Payments: $71,730 (ignoring year 1)

Outstanding Balance: $237,050

Buyer B

Total Payments: $70,317 (ignoring year 1)

Outstanding Balance: $219,818

The difference would even be greater if renting was cheaper than owning and if buyer B saved for a downpayment in the first year. After this term buyer B could potentially change the amortization time and pay off the mortgage sooner.

Update: Mike Fotiou had made a very similar mortgage comparison here.

Calgary Inventory

From the Calgary Real Estate Board

"While there's still a good selection of homes to choose from, we are seeing a slow but steady decrease in our inventory," remarked Wegerich. "As the inventory is reduced we will see a return to a more stable market."

Total inventory has increased by 4.5% over last year from 8820 to 9225.
Total inventory has increased by 4.2% over last month from 8854 to 9225.

In Alberta, January is a winter month

From the Calgary Sun article Calgary home price remain stable

December usually is a month of slow sales as people focus on Christmas.

Inclement weather and poor driving conditions had further driven sales below normal levels.

Apparently in December 2007, with almost twice the sales as this year, Santa canceled Christmas. All of a sudden this January the city of Calgary experienced a certain weather event called "snow", resulting in a roughly 40% sales drop from 2008. How about that?

What about the title "prices remain stable"? That is news to me.

Phantom buyers

It seems "Alberta Real Estate Watch" is now mainstream. So now I feel like I'm kicking the industry when they are down instead of being some sort of renegade blogger. To see what I mean have a look at the comments the Calgary Herald article Calgary's MLS sales price to drop by 2% for homes, 5% for condos

Posted by 'Disgusted'
This article is completely irresponsible, wreckless manipulation aimed at coercing people into buying into a market that is headed for much lower prices. There are people who will be hurt by this - young people who have never seen this type of market before, older people who are hanging on in desperation seeing their retirement dwindle and others hanging on by a prayer hoping beyond hope for a recovery. Where are the facts to support this ridiculous prediction when all the facts point to a failing economy and lower housing prices. I am disgusted by the self serving message by the PRESIDENT of CREB and would urge everyone who feels the same to contact CREB to voice their complaint. At the very least I would like Ms. Wegewich to back up her comments with some realistic facts ilustrating her conclusions. Which of course she could never possibly do.

January 22, 2009 - 10:46 AM

So what does this mean for Alberta Real Estate Watch? I just put on some Vietnam jungle boots.

Yet again we are waiting for the buyers as we have since the boom ended. I put together a compilation of quotes from Calgary Realtors talking positively about interest from potential buyers.

Q: Has the market hit bottom?

A: All of a sudden we're seeing some buyers come out again and start looking for houses. I think they want to buy before the market starts to go up again.

Bonnie Wegerich, CREB president
Incoming real estate chief expects return to stability
Calgary Herald
Jan 21, 2009
(sales between Jan 1-15 are down about 60% from the same period last year according to Mike Fotiou)

Real estate agent Kristen McNaugton has been run off her feet. Instead of the usual winter slowdown, December has been the start of a real estate frenzy. "Well our phone is ringing off the hook. People seem to be getting off the fence and they're ready to buy"

CBC News Fail
December 10
(December SFH sales fell 47% YOY)

"International investors are definitely buying. Calgary and Edmonton real estate is hot in Europe and the U.S., more than I've ever seen before in all my years involved in real estate. The top banks in Ireland, for instance, are buying here. They see it as safe, secure and good for the long-term, compared to other options."

While he says the number of sales won't be anywhere near the record levels of the immediate past, "most cities in the world would cry for what is still forecast for here."

Don Campbell,
Calgary resale market seen as 'self cleaning'
Calgary Herald
March 1, 2008
(The bank of Ireland is trading at $2.12 down from about $60 in March 2008)

...Sales will come, he says.

It is already happening, says Tim Crough, a realtor with Prudential Toole Peet. "We're starting to see the starter home market pick up, predominantly in condos, but also lower-end singles."

'Breather' for market
Calgary Herald
March 1, 2008

Quick post

So much for blogging break...

A quick comment on the Calgary Herald article "Return to normal predicted for market"

Yet another of article of baseless reassurances.

"The start of 2009 is poised to signify the end of the downward movement in Calgary's real estate market," says Ted Zaharko, broker/owner of Royal LePage Foothills Real Estate Service. "Over the past few years, the city experienced explosive growth followed by a significant correction period-- but a turnaround to normal market conditions is imminent."

No claim substantiated. No reflection why the same idea brought up in the past was proven wrong by the market. Take a look at this article from the same author, Realtor and paper from January of 2008: "Return to 'normal' predicted for 2008" . See previous post

After more sweet nothings from another industry insider the Herald prints:

There is a growing feeling within the industry that the low has been reached, particularly with the way the Calgary economy is operating.

This is total ignorance of the past by the Calgary Herald. This implies that at one point the industry was less sure of a bottom and falsely gives them credibility where none is deserved. The industry continues to feel a low has been reached, as it has since the downturn began.

Quote of the year

2008 quote of the year goes to the chief economist of the Canadian Real Estate Association. The following statement appeared in the Calgary Herald regarding Calgary real estate. [emphasis mine]

"It's clear looking at the data that I'm looking at, that in terms of the prices, they've stabilized," he said. "Anyone expecting a continued decline in average price will be surprised and disappointed."

Gregory Klump, July 16, 2008

I think this takes the cake because it comes from the CREA's chief economist who makes assertions with such certainty without explaining to the public what data was used or how he came to his conclusion. The confidence was there without any reflection on what was said in the past.

Anyway I update the chart a had posted earlier this year. Enjoy.

Ted Zaharko: Ridiculous Offers

From Financial post article Concern for North America house prices

Ted Zaharko, who owns Royal LePage Foothills Real Estate Services in Calgary, says Canadians are following the U.S. too closely and expecting the same market conditions to happen here.

While prices and sales continue to fall in Calgary, he figures the market has bottomed out in the city which surpassed Toronto as the second most expensive place to buy a home during this housing cycle.

"We have people putting ridiculous offers in on a home and nobody is selling. People are saying 'l'll wait for prices to drop.' It's not going to happen," says Mr. Zaharko. Prices were down 4.2% in Calgary in November from a year ago, according to CREA.

Ted Zaharko should lay off assertions like "it's not going to happen" considering some of his statements from 2008.

In the Calgary Herald article from Jan 5 Return to 'normal' predicted for 2008

The middle ground has been claimed by Royal LePage, which has forecast a four per cent climb in prices, setting the Calgary average at $429,000.

Despite the city's strong economy and population influx, 2008 will see moderated growth and more sustainable real estate market conditions, says Ted Zaharko, broker-owner of Royal LePage Foothills.

"The combination of less frenzied market conditions and increased supply in resource-rich Alberta are anticipated to grant first-time buyers -- many of whom were previously priced out -- entry into Calgary's resale market in the coming months," he says.

While prices are on their way up again, Zaharko sees a decline in sales through the Calgary Real Estate Board's MLS system for this year.

After setting a new record of more than 33,000 deals in 2007, the Royal LePage official is calling for a six per cent decline to 31,000 in 2008.

"Calgary's real estate market is healthy and is primed to continue like this in 2008," he says. "Calgary is going to return to being a normal market this year and that is the best kind of market to have."

There have been 23,151 total MLS sales between January and November 2008 this is down 27.2% from the 31,799 recorded for the same period last year.

November total MLS average price was $388,747, which is $40,000 off Ted's forecast. Decembers numbers look to be a further decline.

Ted Zaharko explains the price declines in the article Calgary home prices slide as Canada chalks up gains from July 18th.

By year's end, the average house price in Calgary is expected to remain unchanged from last year at $414,000, while the number of unit sales is forecast to decrease by 16.1 per cent to 27,000 units sold by the end of the year, said the report. In 2006, the average price was $346,675.

Nationally, the average prices increased by 5.6 per cent for a detached bungalow, to $351,587, 5.2 per cent for a standard two-storey home, to $418,943, and 3.9 per cent for a standard condominium, to $248,408.

The national average house price is forecast to rise by 3.5 per cent this year to $318,000, but sales are projected to decrease by 11.5 per cent to 461,000 unit sales by the end of 2008.

"While Calgary's residential real estate market remains strong, speculators are altering the resale market significantly by continually adding to inventory levels," said Ted Zaharko, broker/owner for Royal LePage Foothills in Calgary. "Considering the decreases in average year-over-year sale prices, speculators will likely continue undervaluing and selling their renovation and investment properties throughout the year, as many are now unwilling to hold onto multiple properties while the market continues to catch its breath."

What a display of desperate rationalization to explain the price decline! What about the speculators buying up properties in 2006 and 2007 wouldn't that be considered a market distortion as well?

Also consider another Calgary Herald article Luxury housing demand good sign for city from July 26th

"As my broker Ted Zaharko says, the inner city is very much like lakefront cottage properties," says Starnes. "There are only so many and they become more valuable in each passing year."

I think this is one of the biggest myths generated by the up cycle of this bubble. Identifying some positive aspect of a real estate investment, great weather, "downtown", beautiful rockies, Olympics then making some sort of definitive statement about appreciation. People neglect that at some point these characteristics become priced in and have little impact on ongoing appreciation.

Christmas Vacation Round-up

I will be taking a break for a week or so. Here is some real-estat news that caught my attention recently.

Gregory Klump and the CREA come up with a "weighted average" to show that prices have fallen less than the 9.8% of the traditional average. I haven't had time to examine this but I suspect the weighted average is reasonable. However I wonder why they didn't introduce it when prices were increasing. Hmmmm.....

Read the Globe and Mail's article how high-risk mortgages crept north. Here is a post I had last year last year on the subject.

Mike Fotiou has a post comparing the first 16 days of December to 2007 in Calgary. SFH prices down 6-7% condos down 10-12%.

Merry Christmas everyone!

CBC News Fail follow-up

So after a couple of days of sales data it is clear the CBC report on the Calgary Real estate market was misleading and did not represent the facts on the ground. Was it an attempt to artificially boost market sentiment or just the result of ignorance?

The estimated monthly rate of sales is still slow and does not even make it close to "frenzy" or "resurgence".

SFH: 533 (-37% YOY)
Condo:234 (-40% YOY)

Pending sales are barely changed from when the report aired. There are 7 fewer SFH but 8 more condos in the pending queue from December 9th. Mike's stats.

Mike Fotiou also wrote an article on this report on his blog.

CBC News Fail

This clip from CBC News Calgary discusses the local real estate market. Instead of objectively looking at the data they let misinformed brokers tell the story.

[go to 18:00 mark]

Mark Carne is trying to jump start the sluggish Canadian economy and as Peter Akmen tells us that strategy appears to be working in the Calgary Real Estate market.

...but now with falling interest rates Baine is seeing an opportunity in real estate to secure Kaylyn's future.

Real estate agent Kristen McNaugton has been run off her feet. Instead of the usual winter slowdown, December has been the start of a real estate frenzy. "Well our phone is ringing off the hook. People seem to be getting off the fence and they're ready to buy"

[prices have dipped..] but McNaugton says thats not the only reason for the resurgence of sales. She says the bank of Canada cutting interest rates has opened the doors for buyers. "...this is an awesome time to purchase".

...

This mortgage broker says unlike markets in eastern Canada he expects a huge rebound in Calgary real estate prices this spring.

"The stock market isn't the place to go right now, a lot of financial planners would like to hear that to much but its the fact. If anyone has any liquidity right now they are looking at real estate."

Now both real estate agents and mortgage brokers agree the safest investments are right here in Alberta. They are telling their clients to avoid some Canadian cities and most of the U.S. because they say they haven't hit rock bottom

The CBC interviewed two brokers and put together this. Sales so far this December have been slow. From Mike Fotiou's site the first 9 days of December there have been 155 SFH and 71 condo sales. If they continue at this pace it will be the slowest month in YEARS. Note that December may be worse than this estimate as I am assuming the same rate to continue through Christmas.

Estimated December sales
SFH 534 (-37% YOY)
Condo 245 (-37% YOY) *edit*

I don't know how many agents are being run off their feet. According the CREB there are 5700 Realtors which means that so far in December there have been less than 4 homes sold per 100 members. The number is likely higher than that because the sales numbers I am using are for Calgary city only.

strategy appears to be working?
December the start of a real estate frenzy?
Run off her feet?
Resurgence of sales?

epic CBC fail

Calgary: statistics causing fear

Re: "Cutting home prices key to sales success," Nov. 4.

The above article contained numerous statistics used in comparing the Calgary real estate market in 2007 and today. While this comparison may be interesting to some, it continues to put fear into Calgarians' minds. I am a mortgage associate, and 2007 was a great year for me, and recognized by all in my industry as an anomaly year. To give a much more rounded and useful comparison, redo the statistics in the article and compare 2006 to 2008. 2006 was also a great year for me and I am on track to do better in 2008 than in 2006. My sky is not falling, nor is it for most Calgarians. Yes, I will not do as well in 2008 as in 2007, but 2007 was not a normal year. Please stop the fearmongering and compare what is happening in the Calgary real estate market today to a more realistic 2006 year.

link

Well, just go to the Alberta Bubble blog. They put the numbers in context by comparing with many past years, including 2006.

Sales Volume (old criteria of combined SFH and Condo, from BT’s site)

Oct 2001: 1821
Oct 2002: 1930
Oct 2003: 2021
Oct 2004: 2135
Oct 2005: 2584
Oct 2006: 2122
Oct 2007: 1944
Oct 2008: 1442

Also I don't see how the article is fear mongering. In most cases 2006 was a better than 2007 in the statistics used. Consider the title where it is a continuation of the theme that the slowdown is a result of the deliberate decision of potential buyers to wait on the sidelines.

Cutting home prices key to sales success
Buyers waiting for deals in cooling market

Maybe he is referring to a REALTOR suggesting to sell an infill at 625K if the competition is at 700K. Oh, the humanity!

CMHC forecast update

This post will shows how CMHC forecasts have changed over time.

CMHC resale price forecast for Edmonton 2008
Q2 2007 $374,000
Q4 2008 $334,000

CMHC resale price forecast for Edmonton 2009
Q1 2008 $375,000
Q4 2009 $335,000

CMHC resale price forecast for Calgary 2008
Q2 2007 $473,000
Q4 2008 $405,000

CMHC resale price forecast for Calgary 2009
Q1 2008 $450,000
Q4 2009 $406,000

The change in a single quarter for Vancouver 2009 is more stunning:
CHMC resale price forecast for Vancouver 2009
Q3 2008 $645,000
Q4 2008 $535,000

Data is from CMHC Housing Market Outlook

See previous posts here and here