Showing posts with label Seasonally adjusted sales. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seasonally adjusted sales. Show all posts
Friday, July 8, 2011
Edmonton Stats June 2011
Sales have dropped somewhat which could be expected for this time of year. Even with this drop the rate has maintained some gains from the dismal levels seen this time last year.
Listings dropped as expected in June.
Seasonally adjusted sales are low historically but they have been worse. This is a range similar to before the boom but above crisis levels.
The relatively low level of listings is having a stabilizing effect on the market.
The sales to new listing ration is slightly above 50%. A rate of 50% indicates a market with stable prices.
Listings dropped as expected in June.
Seasonally adjusted sales are low historically but they have been worse. This is a range similar to before the boom but above crisis levels.
The relatively low level of listings is having a stabilizing effect on the market.
The sales to new listing ration is slightly above 50%. A rate of 50% indicates a market with stable prices.
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Edmonton Sales
The story: Sales increased from crisis levels but are still low historically. New listings have been relatively tame and inventory is down year over year.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Edmonton Stats April 2011
The REALTORS Association of Edmonton released their monthly stats here and overall they show weak sales and normal level of new listings.
The preliminary number for sales held steady with 1487 in April compared to an initial report of 1503 in March. Normally, sales are expected to increase this time of year. Preliminary sales are at scorched earth level, which is equivalent to the worst six months of the financial crisis.
Listings are rising at a normal pace for spring.
Seasonally adjusted rate of sales have been low for a year following a bounce after the financial crisis. I assumed the final number for sales will come in about 7% higher than the preliminary figure.
Seasonally adjusted listings have been stable since a spike last spring.
With lower sales and stable listings on a seasonally adjusted basis the sales to new listing ratio fell to 47%. A ratio lower than 50% indicates a market with downward price pressure.
Finally a historical chart of actual sales, listings and inventory.
The preliminary number for sales held steady with 1487 in April compared to an initial report of 1503 in March. Normally, sales are expected to increase this time of year. Preliminary sales are at scorched earth level, which is equivalent to the worst six months of the financial crisis.
Listings are rising at a normal pace for spring.
Seasonally adjusted rate of sales have been low for a year following a bounce after the financial crisis. I assumed the final number for sales will come in about 7% higher than the preliminary figure.
Seasonally adjusted listings have been stable since a spike last spring.
With lower sales and stable listings on a seasonally adjusted basis the sales to new listing ratio fell to 47%. A ratio lower than 50% indicates a market with downward price pressure.
Finally a historical chart of actual sales, listings and inventory.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Calagry Stats for March 2011
Bob Truman updated the Old Criteria stats for March 2011. With this I have once again update the trends new listings and sales adding inventory and price charts as well this month. Seasonally adjusted sales and new listings as well as benchmarks are explained here.
Sales are down year over year but are still above the pace of the financial crisis (shown in red). There are two ways to interpret this YOY drop.
1) In terms of sales the market was doing reasonably well last March and it was only in June and July where they deteriorated. So if we maintain this same rate seasonally adjusted we can expect an increase in yearly sales shortly.
2) Now that there are fewer available buyers due to tighter mortgage rules the rate of sales should decrease faster than normal, resulting in continued year over year sales declines.
April will be a relatively slow month due to a sales vacuum formed by the recent mortgage rule changes. However I believe this will only have a short term impact and sales would then recover. My guess would be somewhere above last year's rate but below that of 2nd half of 2009, shown by the green line.
Listings are following closely the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009, shown in green. The low level of new listings is providing some support to the overall market which would be faring worse otherwise due to the low level of sales.
Inventory is about the same as this time last year, with only 0.6% fewer properties on the market. What is notable however is the difference in the rate of change between the first few months of this year compared to last.
Dec 2009: 5017
Mar 2010: 8524
% increase: 70%
Dec 2010: 6056
Mar 2011: 8477
% increase: 40%
Median prices are down 3.5% from last March.
Sales to new listing ratio is hovering around 50% from low sales and new listings.
Update: The Edmonton Journal ran an article on Don Campbell pumping another boom: “I’ve studied this for 19 years and I have not seen this strong of a perfect storm before.” See previous posts: part 1 and part 2.
Sales are down year over year but are still above the pace of the financial crisis (shown in red). There are two ways to interpret this YOY drop.
1) In terms of sales the market was doing reasonably well last March and it was only in June and July where they deteriorated. So if we maintain this same rate seasonally adjusted we can expect an increase in yearly sales shortly.
2) Now that there are fewer available buyers due to tighter mortgage rules the rate of sales should decrease faster than normal, resulting in continued year over year sales declines.
April will be a relatively slow month due to a sales vacuum formed by the recent mortgage rule changes. However I believe this will only have a short term impact and sales would then recover. My guess would be somewhere above last year's rate but below that of 2nd half of 2009, shown by the green line.
Listings are following closely the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009, shown in green. The low level of new listings is providing some support to the overall market which would be faring worse otherwise due to the low level of sales.
Inventory is about the same as this time last year, with only 0.6% fewer properties on the market. What is notable however is the difference in the rate of change between the first few months of this year compared to last.
Dec 2009: 5017
Mar 2010: 8524
% increase: 70%
Dec 2010: 6056
Mar 2011: 8477
% increase: 40%
Median prices are down 3.5% from last March.
Sales to new listing ratio is hovering around 50% from low sales and new listings.
Update: The Edmonton Journal ran an article on Don Campbell pumping another boom: “I’ve studied this for 19 years and I have not seen this strong of a perfect storm before.” See previous posts: part 1 and part 2.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Edmonton Stats Feb 2011
Edmonton sales are now only slightly higher compared to the rate equivalent to the worst six months of the financial crisis.
Seasonally adjusted sales to new listings ratio fell below 50% again indicating downward pressure on prices.
Seasonally adjusted sales to new listings ratio fell below 50% again indicating downward pressure on prices.
Calgary Stats Feb 2011
After a slow start in January sales have picked up in February. Even with this increase they are still below the pace set in the 2nd half of 2009 shown in green in the chart below. It will be interesting to see how much the new mortgage rules will slow sales after March 17. I believe the impact of this change has been overstated because it is a marginal reduction of the size of a mortgage allowed and only effects those who were going to their affordability limit with the maximum amortization. (It is a positive change long term and if you are a buyer rushing to get a 35 year am - don't do it. Get a shorter amortization later when you can afford it.)
New listing have ramped up at the start of 2011. This stat will be important to watch over the next few months. Will we have a higher than normal surge this spring similar to last year?
Seasonally adjusted sales have remain higher compared to late last spring but nowhere near the pace of the boom of 2006-2007.
Seasonally adjusted new listings have increased consistently since reaching a low in October 2010.
So far in 2011 the sales to new listings ration has dropped below 50% due to new listings rising more than sales on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Since December the median price (Old Criteria) has increased from $342,500 to $357,250. I believe that sales mix and seasonal factors contribute to this so to give further insight I hope to add seasonally adjusted price charts shortly. The same goes for total inventory as well which has increased from 6,056 to 7,517.
New listing have ramped up at the start of 2011. This stat will be important to watch over the next few months. Will we have a higher than normal surge this spring similar to last year?
Seasonally adjusted sales have remain higher compared to late last spring but nowhere near the pace of the boom of 2006-2007.
Seasonally adjusted new listings have increased consistently since reaching a low in October 2010.
So far in 2011 the sales to new listings ration has dropped below 50% due to new listings rising more than sales on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Since December the median price (Old Criteria) has increased from $342,500 to $357,250. I believe that sales mix and seasonal factors contribute to this so to give further insight I hope to add seasonally adjusted price charts shortly. The same goes for total inventory as well which has increased from 6,056 to 7,517.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Calgary Stats December 2010
Sales decreased last month but not as much as expected.
New Listings fell dramatically as expected this time of the year.
On a seasonally adjusted basis sales have partially recovered when compared to the dismal pace set this spring.
Fewer new listings are coming onto the market now when compared to the rate earlier this year. This will be a key indicator to watch going into next year as the unknown variable is how many will be re-listed and how motivated they are to sell.
The sales to new listing ratio improved on a seasonally adjusted basis as sales held up better than expected.
The last chart shows sales, new listings and inventory over the last 5 years.Raw data from Bob Truman's site
Explanation of benchmarks
Happy New Year!
Sunday, December 5, 2010
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