REIN strikes again

Don Campbell of the the Real Estate Investment Network strikes again. Edmonton takes the number one spot again for the top ten towns to invest in Alberta. Edmonton Journal just soaks it up in the article: City Real Estate No. 1

The Edmonton Journal sure did its best to lend credibility to this report. Look! They use "data" to arrive at their results! It must be credible.

The list is compiled from a survey of statistical and demographic data from sources such as Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Multiple Listing Service, government and economic development offices.

Edmonton has had the top spot for six years now so why has it performed so poorly recently?

A look at other statements from Don Campbell may be enlightening.

From a previous post Consider the Source:

Campbell said he expects Edmonton home prices generally to rise nine per cent in 2008 and 12 per cent in 2009. Homes that benefit from transportation improvements will outperform the market by an additional 10 to 20 per cent, he said.

He predicted that Calgary would appreciate 12.2% in 2008 in this post:

At a Real Estate Investing Network seminar last night, my mentor Don Campbell (author or Real Estate Investing in Canada), predicted a 12.2% increase in real estate prices for Calgary in 2008. Recently the Toronto Dominion bank predicted a 10.1% increase for Calgary in 2008, and CMHC is stating it will be in the single digits.

I think we'll see 15% increases in 2008 ... however, I'll buy basing my numbers on 8% appreciation. (8% is huge ... and all we should ever hope for.)

People are in fear over the Royalty Review and "Our Fair Share". It's a great buying time.

And what about the top Irish banks (plural) supposedly investing in Calgary?! This quote is from March 1st. link here

"International investors are definitely buying. Calgary and Edmonton real estate is hot in Europe and the U.S., more than I've ever seen before in all my years involved in real estate. The top banks in Ireland, for instance, are buying here. They see it as safe, secure and good for the long-term, compared to other options."

An Old What's New

'Bear' with this cheap post while I wait for Realtor board press releases. They will be juicy.

From Bob Truman's What's New:

Apr 13
Last year, sales of SFH dropped from March to April. This year, April sales are 7% ahead of March sales. Condo sales are 24% ahead of March. Condo prices are on the upswing this month, and looking at SFH pending sales(avg price is $500,243)SFH prices will be heading that direction soon as well.

Prices were basically flat except the condo median took a $3000 hit compared to last month. Sales are down slightly with 16 more condos and 55 fewer SFH compared to March. Prices and sales are down year over year. Data from Mike's Stats.

How much time is left in spring? Don Campbell, where are the top Irish Banks? (From March 1st)

"International investors are definitely buying. Calgary and Edmonton real estate is hot in Europe and the U.S., more than I've ever seen before in all my years involved in real estate. The top banks in Ireland, for instance, are buying here. They see it as safe, secure and good for the long-term, compared to other options."
...
It is already happening, says Tim Crough, a realtor with Prudential Toole Peet. "We're starting to see the starter home market pick up, predominantly in condos, but also lower-end singles."

How about this article from 660 news Rate cut boost to market:

Calgary's waning real estate market got a boost by a cut in interest rates, says a local broker who attributes more action on listings to lower mortage payments.
...
He attributes some of the most recent purchases to the Bank of Canada's move to cut the overnight lending rate half a percentage point to 3%. For a single-family home valued at $475,000, with 5% down, this translates into a reduction of monthly mortgage payments by $143, or from $2,110 to $1,967.

I try to run a calculator on a $451,250 mortgage to match his numbers as the payment seemed low. If i use a 4.25% rate over 40 years i get $1,956, if i included the $13,062 CMHC fees (required and generally rolled into the balance) the payment goes up to $2,013. Besides being a pump piece this is interesting because it shows 40-year mortgages are so common they are being assumed into calculations.