Saturday, April 4, 2009

Notice a Pattern?

The REALTORS Association reports on several statistics in their report and draw comparisons from either the previous month or the previous year. Below I made the opposite comparison they chose to make in the report [in red].

Edmonton, April 2, 2009: The average* price of single family homes in the Edmonton area has hovered around the $350,000 mark for the first quarter of this year [Average price of a single family home in 2008 increased from 379,567 to 387,632 January to March], reported the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. At the beginning of January the average price for a SFD was $351,870. The price varied slightly and at the end of March the average SFD price was $349,716, up 0.7% from the previous month [decrease of 9.8% YOY]. Condo prices were a little more volatile but popped up 1.6% in March to $230,469, after a 5% drop in February. The average price of a duplex/rowhouse was $276,776.

“With price stability, low interest rates, spring weather and pent-up demand; it appears that REALTORS® are starting to get busy again,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “Our offices are reporting an increase in buyer interest. Sales in March were up 28% from the previous month.” [down 11.4% YOY]

Residential sales through the Multiple Listing Service® in March totalled 1,380 units. Total MLS® sales (including commercial and rural sales) were 1,513 units. This is a 30% increase over the previous month. [down 11.5% YOY] Total residential sales for the first quarter were 3,185 units and total MLS® sales were 3,471 with a YTD value of $1.1 billion.

There were 2,891 residential listings in March (down 31.7% from last March) [up 9.0% from February] resulting in a month end inventory of 7,476 residential properties (down from 9,464 in March 2008) [up from 7076 in February]. The sales-to-listing ratio was 48% and average days-on-market was 56 days (down five from February) [up 5 over last March].

“The market is once again operating in a normal fashion with typical seasonal fluctuations,” said Ponde. “REALTORS® are prepared with daily statistics and market knowledge to help clients understand the market fluctuations and advise them on pricing and marketing strategies that help buy and sell homes and commercial properties.”

REALTORS® (who are all members of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton) have just completed their annual membership renewal. Some members choose renewal time to withdraw or retire from the industry so membership numbers dip slightly at the end of March. So far the renewals are typical and the Association expects that the more stable market will encourage most REALTORS® to remain in the industry.


vanman said...

How good is the EREB at spinning?

The EREB is so good at spin that:

...they teach the spinning classes 3 times daily at the Y.

..all the wheels on their cars have spinners!

squidly77 said...

huge price decline of 30% in Bowness.

Coach Mom said...

Any bottom predictions for Alberta (Calgary, specifically)?

I live in the US, and have been following the west coast there, but now my parents-in-law have decided to move back to Calgary and are looking for a home to buy. I think they should rent for a couple years (since the bottom in CA is at least 2 y away)...but they're not sure about that. All that "Priced out" propaganda.



BearClaw said...

Any bottom predictions for Alberta (Calgary, specifically)?

I have no idea! There are two opposing forces coming down the pipeline. Lower inventory as described by professor Radley. The other is whatever the Alberta economy is gonna do. My personal opinion is that the job losses and weak economy has not fully worked its way into real estate but lower inventory may limit the negative effects. I do not anticipate pre-boom prices.

Nothing good can come from giving advice to in-laws.

Coach Mom said...

Don't worry, they're not *that* kind of in-laws.

I agree, it seems that the Canada situation is more complicated than California. I think the less *insane* lending practices will cushion the fall for Canadian real estate, as long as the retail and export sections of the economy don't implode.

Thanks! I'll tell them to keep an eye on the housing blogs, and take their time and find the right house. I'm pretty sure I'm right in saying that they don't have to worry about being priced out in the next 6 months. (I hope. :)

Kevin said...

I'm not sure our lending practices were all that much better... but we don't have to worry about the banks going belly up, since because of the CMHC structure they are pretty much pre-bailed out... the banks aren't really exposed to default risk, just the taxpayer.

The really hard thing to know about the inventory levels is how big of a shadow inventory exists of would-be sellers that are waiting for sales and prices to pick back up.

Especially in the condo market it's crazy, even last summer when inventory here was at record levels I remember a realtor commenting to me that that for every condo listed in most complexes there is at least another being held or temporarily rented out so not to flood the market. And their were no lack of listings then

Speculation was running rampant for condos and small houses. Ultimately the bottom is going to fall our of that market even more so, and it's going to pull everything else down even further then it would have otherwise.

Dali said...

The amount of inventory on the sidelines is big. I know 3 people personally that took their homes off the market because they weren't even getting a sniff. If they would have dropped their prices they might have.

Radley77 said...

So where are these people living now that they have taken their home off the market? Has the bank foreclosed on them?