Friday, July 8, 2011

Thanks for stopping by.

So after 250 posts, almost 4 years and dozens of page views I'm calling it quits. Our family is about to double in size (twins!) and unpaid market analysis is on the bottom rung of priorities.

Some final thoughts:

While I think some of the bear blogs are overstating the downside risk to the market from factors such as demographics and CMHC underwriting I do believe that growth in mortgage credit and prices will require some level of nominal price declines. This will take time.

Right now the Alberta real estate market is in a sort of limbo. The hangover from the rapid increase in price still lingers with elevated levels of foreclosures and high debt levels. In migration and employment growth are currently positive which are offsetting this right now but global economic risks add uncertainty.

My advice would be wary of advertisers selling mortgage that are engineeringed to look cheaper than rent but aren't. Or hucksters using poor reasoning to pump a boom that isn't happening. On the other hand it is important not mindlessly cheer on those who say the job recovery is fake or that economic armagedon is around the corner. Perhaps this appeal to balance is a little condescending and I should give more credit to the majority of people who are capable of thinking critically (I am an optimist). I wish I could offer a more definitive closing but that just isn't my style.

Thanks to all who stopped by over the years and contributed to the discussion. Best of luck to all.

Calgary Stats June 2011

Edmonton Stats June 2011

Sales have dropped somewhat which could be expected for this time of year. Even with this drop the rate has maintained some gains from the dismal levels seen this time last year.

Listings dropped as expected in June.

Seasonally adjusted sales are low historically but they have been worse. This is a range similar to before the boom but above crisis levels.

The relatively low level of listings is having a stabilizing effect on the market.

The sales to new listing ration is slightly above 50%. A rate of 50% indicates a market with stable prices.