August Market Facts - Prices Up
August Market Facts - Sales Up
First off a comment on the titles. Sales were down compared to July and up compared to last year. Prices were down both to last month and last year. Anyway I had the misfortune of listening to these...
Just like the swallows return to Capistrano every year after winter the buyers return to the Edmonton real estate market after summer.
It happens every year like clockwork and we expect it to happen again - Marc Perras
This is simply a fabrication by Marc Perras and is not supported by reality based arguments.
Look at this sales chart again from the Edmonton Real Estate Blog. Compare June, July and August numbers with those of September, October and November. With a few exceptions fall tend to be slower than summer. The only thing happening like clockwork is desperate spinning from the REALTORS Association of Edmonton.
*Chart From Edmonton Real Estate Blog
There is more...
But we usually see softer prices in August because people have so much on the go. That pattern held true this August as the average residential price dipped by about 1.8% from the previous month.
So prices fell slightly as expected...
He then goes on to say how prices are expected to rise in the fall. Using their own numbers I determined the % month price changes for August and September going back to 1990 (from REALTOR Association stats).
|Aug % change||Sep % change|
Generally September has had higher price drops than August. And the drop of 1.8%, while not devastating, is worse than average.
Also remember when the price drops were supposed to only occur in the second quarter? This statement I covered in a previous post.
I don't mind bullish arguments and would expect them from REALTORs. But when they totally make stuff up that is not supported by the numbers they need to be called on it.
Q: Should I buy now or wait?
Perras: "I think it's a great time to buy now. If we're going to see any softening in prices, it's going to be in the second quarter, which is right now. This kind of inventory is going to thin out as we get into the fall."
Marc Perras, May 6, 2008.