Edmonton Sales

The story: Sales increased from crisis levels but are still low historically. New listings have been relatively tame and inventory is down year over year.

Edmonton Stats Feb 2011

Edmonton sales are now only slightly higher compared to the rate equivalent to the worst six months of the financial crisis.




Seasonally adjusted sales to new listings ratio fell below 50% again indicating downward pressure on prices.

Edmonton Stats November 2010

Edmonton Market Update

Here are the charts once again. This time I'd like to know what the dozen or so readers out there have to say about them. One point - I estimated sales in some of these charts based on preliminary numbers.

Have a great weekend.

Edmonton stats - listings remain high

New listings in Edmonton are coming on the market at a substantially higher rate than the 2nd half of 2009. Clearly many of these sellers will be unsuccessful and the market will be forced to find a new equilibrium. The question is on the path to equilibrium will there be a self reinforcing negative cycle and how long it will last. Listings will tell this story during the second half of this year.



Sales were off to a slow start this year and are now following a seasonal trend albeit at a lower level than the last half of 2009.


The seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio remains below 50% from which we can expect price decreases.

Looking back at historical figures listings are similar those that lead to peak inventory levels of 2007 and 2008 while sales are relatively low.

Edmonton listings up more than sales

Similar to Calgary. Listings accelerating faster than sales resulting in a seasonally adjusted sales/listing ratio of 42%. Prices were strong (I believe this is partly due to seasonal patterns and monthly noise) but supply and demand indicates an environment of falling prices.

Edmonton Sales Down

The REALTORS Association of Edmonton and the Edmonton Real Estate Blog have posted January statistics. Just like in Calgary seasonally adjusted sales are very weak. In fact, while we would normally expect sales to increase 18% in January they fell by 7%.

Despite slower sales new listings are following the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009 seasonally adjusted.


The seasonally adjusted sales/new listing ratio has decreased to 51% (non-adjusted is 40%). A sales to new listing ratio of 50% indicates a market with no price appreciation.


The weaker market is due to sales not increasing with listings last month.

Below are the charts for sales and listings seasonally adjusted.

Don Campbell - From the Vault

Campbell said he expects Edmonton home prices generally to rise nine per cent in 2008 and 12 per cent in 2009. Homes that benefit from transportation improvements will outperform the market by an additional 10 to 20 per cent, he said. "When people look for a property to purchase, be it their primary residence or an investment property, they take into consideration affordability, commute times and commute costs," Campbell said.

November 14, 2007
Don Campbell
Transit effect a boon to homeowners

The bottom

From the EREB January report

“Nobody rings a bell when prices hit the bottom,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “The bottom is evident only after several months of rising prices. One month does not make a trend but the market is certainly welcoming to home buyers.” He pointed to the lowest interest rates in years, the large selection of homes available and recently announced economic stimulus packages as reasons for the increasing market activity. The amount of RRSP savings that can be applied to a first-time home purchase was increased from $20,000 to $25,000 and a tax rebate for home renovation expenses were announced in the recent federal budget. Both measures will encourage home buyers.

I actually don't have any problem with the new president. I just wanted to throw in my two cents.

Really, so what if a buyer misses the bottom? Unless the market goes back to the extereme appreciation of the boom in the near future, which I suspect is unlikely. Generally real estate will move slowly and buyers can make their decision on other factors besides price swings. If you biggest motivation for buying is you worry about appreciation in the near future then forget it. People should buy because they want good value and are comfortable with the property and the price.

What is happening now isn't the result of buyers acting irrationally but a correction of the distorted economy that had existed in the boom.

Upgraders: blast from the past

Lets go back a year and consider the story of upgraders. First from the August 2007 article City's housing market going through a correction, not a crash

Realtors say they wouldn't be surprised if average prices fall by six or seven per cent from their July peak, before levelling off in early 2008. If so, that would take the average single-detached home price down to $388,000.
....
Roughly a dozen upgraders are slated for the Edmonton region. Thousands of new jobs will be created.

This was a very loaded statement. "Roughly a dozen" was actually nine. The term "upgraders"was applied to a brand new sites, expansions or converting existing plants. The use of "are slated" actually meant some were under construction, some were approved to be build and some had filed applications. So if you were shopping for a house at the time and thought this meant 12 new upgraders in the Edmonton area you were wrong.

Here is another article from the Edmonton sun also from August 2007. Hold off on selling the house.

Even with huge slowdowns, at least half those projects will happen. The bitumen upgraders in Strathcona and Sturgeon counties are just starting. Nine proposed upgraders are listed on that website.
....
House prices will go nowhere but up.

The list of upgraders can be found here in the Alberta Industrial Heartland section. There has been some recent developments regarding these project and I have done my best to consolidate them in a list.

Shell Scotford Upgrader Expansion 1
under construction*

Shell Scotford Upgrader Expansion 2
deferred

Strathcona Refinery
under construction*

Sturgeon County upgrader
"considering deferral of any decision to construct the upgrader."

BA Energy Alberta Heartland Upgrader
construction halted

North West Upgrader
"waiting to further finance"

Synenco Energy Northern Lights Upgrader
From what I can figure out it doesn't look good*

Statoil North American Upgrader
delayed two years

Total Upgrader
delayed two years?

*Total Energy may have bought this, not sure of the status of the project.

The two in this list under construction were started before the above article were written so they do not represent new projects. Any clarification to this list by reader would be welcome .

CMHC forecast update

This post will shows how CMHC forecasts have changed over time.

CMHC resale price forecast for Edmonton 2008
Q2 2007 $374,000
Q4 2008 $334,000

CMHC resale price forecast for Edmonton 2009
Q1 2008 $375,000
Q4 2009 $335,000

CMHC resale price forecast for Calgary 2008
Q2 2007 $473,000
Q4 2008 $405,000

CMHC resale price forecast for Calgary 2009
Q1 2008 $450,000
Q4 2009 $406,000

The change in a single quarter for Vancouver 2009 is more stunning:
CHMC resale price forecast for Vancouver 2009
Q3 2008 $645,000
Q4 2008 $535,000

Data is from CMHC Housing Market Outlook

See previous posts here and here

Happy Happy Joy Joy

An article from the Edmonton Journal takes a look at the brighter side. Local sunny break amid economic clouds.

So just where is E-town's economy going? Toward a period of slower growth, admits Tsounis, at an estimated 2.5 per cent this year, 2.8 per cent next year, and an average of 3.3 per cent between 2009 and 2011.

That's down from a red-hot five per cent annually between 2003 and 2007. But it's growth nonetheless, at a time when the U.S. economy will shrink, and Canada will struggle to stay above water.

I am not sure when this forecast was made. Was it before the market crash or after? I could only find a forecast from May 2007 on the city of Edmonton website here. There was a lot of optimistic economic forecasts including GDP.

2008 - 5.0%
2009 - 4.0%
2010 - 4.0%
2011 - 4.5%
2012 - 4.5%

The rest of the article was bright and sunny.

Feeling more cheerful yet? Good. There's more.

Let's start with oil prices. They fell to the $67-US-a-barrel range Wednesday, about $80 or 54 per cent below the July peak of $147. The worry warts will tell you we're heading for an '80s-style crash, but that's absurd.

Just as oil markets overshot on the upside, they're now overshooting on the downside. China and India haven't gone away. Once OPEC's proposed cuts take hold, the credit crunch eases -- as it's already showing signs of doing -- and recovery begins, demand will pick up. So will oil prices.

What did the author write just over 2 months ago? In the Aug 12th article Our housing market's correction is not a calamity:

Unless energy prices fall off a cliff, Alberta's economy should remain strong. And that should lead to a stronger housing market in 2009.

So what's a cliff? In my view, oil prices would have to skid to $75 US per barrel or lower for a sustained period -- rendering some oilsands projects uneconomic -- and natural gas prices would have to sink below $7 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), making drilling too costly to justify.

Despite the recent hiccup in commodity prices, I don't think that's in the cards. Now that the speculators are on the run, I'd expect oil prices to find a bottom in the $100-per-barrel range; natural gas should find support in the $8 range.

See previous post

If you don't read the newspaper you are uninformed. If you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.
— Mark Twain

Another Marc Perras Radio Ad

Here is the ad.

"The average price of single family homes was down by 1.9% since August. Condos on the other hand were up 11.7%.... When you factor in all types of residential property the average price was down 1.3%"

Probably a simple mistake but it is rich that at the beginning of the ad the questioner said "Anybody can read statistics off a page and give you numbers". The average price of condos in Edmonton increased by 0.5%.

The price drop was explained by change in sales mix:

"It has a lot to do with the mix of homes on the market. The average factors everything from entry level homes to estate homes. Right now there are more entry level, lower priced homes on the market, so that brings the overall average price down despite the strong sales we are seeing."

A different perspective comes from the Edmonton Real Estate Blog. Keep in mind that this is also referring to the first half of October as well.

As you can see from the chart below, this is not just a case of fewer high end listings selling, as the average price per square foot has dropped.

Sales price/square foot chart.

Homes are on sale, Stocks are not safe

Ed Jensen makes the case that real estate is a safer investment due to the turbulence in the stock market in the Calgary Sun article Seller's market returning:

Investing in real estate in Calgary, he said, is a safer investment than putting money into the stock market.

The main index of the Toronto Stock Exchange fell more than 600 points yesterday in yet another day of turbulent market swings.

"People should take note," he said.

Isn't it precious that when home prices fall they are "on sale" or represent oppurtunity but when stocks fall they become a dangerous investment?

May 2008 CREB Report
BUYERS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION – HOMES ARE ON SALE TODAY!

“Now is not the time to wait until the sale is over and then decide to buy; after you read a headline, the best time to buy has passed,” cautioned, CREB® President, Ed Jensen.

Also the title of the article "Seller's market Returning" may be a couple weeks outdated. Sales were good in Edmonton last month and were decent for Calgary and listings were down. For the first half on October sales/listing ratio appears to be back in buyers market territory. A buyer's market is described by less than 40% ratio while over 60% is a seller's market. From Bob Truman's Stats:

Edmonton Sale/New List Ratio
SFH/Condo
July 2007 51% / 41%
Aug 2007 50% / 44%
Sept 2008 53% / 45%
Oct 1-14 2008 40% / 32%

Calgary Sale/New Listings Ratio
SFH/Condo
July 2007 51% / 45%
Aug 2007 52% / 47%
Sept 2008 44% / 39%
Oct 1-13 2008 36% / 36%

Edmonton Forecast Check

September was a good month for sales in Edmonton and the topic was covered in the article Edmonton home sales skyrocket in September. Perras' forecast from the beginning of the year was brought up -

Perras forecasted sales volume for 2008 would reach "reasonably strong" volumes similar to 2005, before the market spiked in 2006.

Here is the text from the original forecast from January 9th

The total number of residential sales in 2008 will probably drop slightly from 2007 levels. Perras expects that 19,100 residential properties will sell through the MLS® in 2008. There were 20,544 sales in 2007.

Initially it called for more sales than in 2005 (19,100 compared to 18,634) and currently we are running slightly behind the sales of 2005:

	2005	2008	Difference
JANUARY	886	1227	341
FEBRUARY	1257	1287	30
MARCH	1680	1557	-123
APRIL	1802	1823	21
MAY	2098	1821	-277
JUNE	2134	1852	-282
JULY	1610	1784	174
AUGUST	1934	1541	-393
SEPTEMBER	1547	1729	182
OCTOBER	1333
NOVEMBER	1445
DECEMBER	908
Total (Jan – Sep)	14948	14621	-327

Also looking at prices the forecast called for 4% increase across the board. Compare this to what we have now

Perras anticipates that prices for all types of residential property will increase gradually through 2008 and finish the year about 4% higher than the current price. If the forecast is accurate then single family detached homes will sell for $397,303 next year and condos will be priced at $263,400.

	01/12/06	Peak Price	01/12/07	Forecast Dec 2008	Sept 2008
SFD	341933	426028	382022	397303	362097
Condo	227428	271908	253270	263401	252234
Duplex/Rowhouse	295178	367964	306967	319246	315690
All Residential	294155	354718	329705	342893	324906

And inventory:

The current inventory of residential properties is now 7,094 homes. The inventory will decrease through the year but the wide choice of properties will have a dampening effect on prices offsetting increased demand from in-migration and economic growth. Condominiums are expected to become a stronger option (especially for first time buyers) because of the lower price point.

Right now inventory is at 8,808 it probably won't get much below where it began the year at 7,094, if at all.

Here are some previous posts regarding forecasts:

CMHC forecast changes
Klump on Calgary
Quote of the Day
EREB average price and analysis (2007)
Forward Looking Statements (2007)

Perras: Ridiculous Statements

The thing that is astounding about the Edmonton Journal and Marc Perras is how they can be so certain in their fabricated stories when they have been so wrong in the past. I am referring to the Edmonton Journal article Home sales spike as prices sag.

With downturn ebbing, buyers flood market that's 'not going to get any better'
Bill Mah, The Edmonton Journal
Published: Thursday, September 04

The term ' buyers flood market' was not brought up by the industry insiders quoted in the article but created by the Edmonton Journal, demonstrating their own bias.

Marc Perras, president of the Realtors Association of Edmonton, said the figures confirm what he's experienced in his own real estate office.

"I've been run off my feet," Perras said. "July was ridiculously busy and August has been ridiculously busy, and when it shows in the numbers, it's not just me."

These are the Edmonton sales numbers for August for the last several years. 'Ridiculously busy' is a great exaggeration at best. I have my own bias here so I will just present the numbers and the sales chart again (from Edmonton Real Estate Blog).

	August Sales
2003	1438
2004	1534
2005	1934
2006	2079
2007	1299
2008	1541

There were 9,612 residential properties in the inventory on Aug. 31, compared with 10,501 at the beginning of the month.

"The stats show buyers are confident with the Edmonton economy. It's a large selection to pick from right now, and I think they don't foresee a drastic dropping of prices, so they want to get into the marketplace and buy.

It is true that part of the inventory reduction is due to some recovery in the sales/listing ratio which is at 51%. What is not mentioned are listing that are removed or expired but did not sell. From the weekly update on the Edmonton Real Estate blog there were 692 delists last week alone. Another 'expert' chimes in:

"For buyers, it's not going to get any better than it is right now because of the supply, which is going to start to dwindle away," Goatcher said.

Sales will start to dwindle as well going into winter. Actually they already have, but you wouldn't have guessed it from this article. Honestly, I do not know what will happen in 2009 but I still get aggravated at the certainty which these statements are made.

Edmonton August Report

The August report is here. Sales were only compared to 2007's devastating numbers and not to other more "balanced" years. While its true that sales are up over 2007 consider some previous statements regarding sales:

“Near record January sales indicate that housing sales will remain strong in the Edmonton area as buyers and sellers adjust to the new pricing levels,” said Marc Perras, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton.
Feb 5, 2008 (21% drop over 2007)

“We predicted that sales would be on par with the last ‘normal’ year that we had in 2005. So far the market is behaving as we anticipated.”
March 4, 2008 (32% drop over 2007)

Actually in the forecast released at the beginning of the year Marc Perras predicted sales to drop slightly. The actually number of sales this year will certainly be less than his forecast.

"The total number of residential sales in 2008 will probably drop slightly from 2007 levels. Perras expects that 19,100 residential properties will sell through the MLS® in 2008. There were 20,544 sales in 2007."
Jan 9, 2008

..There is more....

With the high inventory, demand was strong with residential sales near traditional volumes.
April 3, 2008 (34% sales drop over 2007)

April sales of all types of residential property through the Multiple Listing Service® were lower than the two previous years at 1,823 units but higher than the more typical years of 2004 and 2005.
May 5, 2008 (25% sales drop over 2007)

Sales were up 1% in April when compared to 2004/2005. See previous post.

May sales exceeded same month sales in 2003 and 2004 but were below May sales for 2005-2007 when the market was super-heated.
June 3, 2008 (36% sales drop over 2007)

This is a false statement. May sales were in fact below those of 2004. See previous post.

Don't get me wrong. Number are numbers and there were 18% more sales this August compared to last year. I just don't buy the spin. To EREB 2007 was off limits except when comparing to record low sales. This chart is probably the most enlightening way to look at the sales figures stolen from the Edmonton Real Estate Blog. It is laid out so it is easy to compare sales from each month to the last several years.

See the red line? Thats the sales surge the Edmonton Journal is referring to in this article: Edmonton home sales surge, prices dip.

There is still more. Marc Perras had to comment on price as well.

“Housing prices typically rise slightly through the fall,” said Perras. “We expect that the strong sales this quarter will support rising prices as we approach year-end.

This reminded me of a previous statement which I debunked in this post.

"I think it's a great time to buy now. If we're going to see any softening in prices, it's going to be in the second quarter, which is right now. This kind of inventory is going to thin out as we get into the fall."

.....

Ed Jensen's report for Calgary was less brutal and focused more on sellers. He still managed to call the Calgary market stable and had the same buyer's market charts.

Spotlight Edmonton Journal

Today I am just going to make comments on the following article from the Edmonton Journal: Our housing market's correction is not a calamity

EDMONTON - Is the city's housing market going into the tank, as it did in the 1980s? Or is it already showing signs of emerging from its year-long funk?

My guess? With the average price of a single-family detached home in Edmonton down to $379,224 in July -- nearly $38,000 or 9.1 per cent below the July 2007 peak of $417,150 -- the recent downturn is largely history.

Sales volumes are picking up, the bloated inventory of unsold homes is shrinking, new housing starts are down by more than 70 per cent, and current prices better reflect what buyers are willing to pay to live in what has become one of Canada's most consistently prosperous cities.

Regarding the comment about sales picking up and inventory shrinking it is technically true there are stats that can be used to show this. By comparing to sales from last year and to inventory from last month this statement is correct. Here is a chart showing sales and inventory from the Edmonton Real Estate Blog. Personally, I wouldn't make the case that recent trend.s in sales and inventory makes for a bottom

...But let's get a grip. Alberta remains an island of prosperity in an otherwise stormy sea. We've had a correction, not a U.S.-style housing market meltdown. And what a run we've had.

I like how "we've had a correction" refers to the it in the past tense as if we have already past it.

Since January 2002, the average price of a single-detached home in Edmonton has jumped by more than $216,000, or 133 per cent. And that's after taking into account the price declines of the past 12 months. Local condo prices have risen even faster, soaring 157 per cent since early 2002.

Those numbers reflect a sea change in the global economy, and a rise in commodity prices that remains intact, despite the recent correction.

What this article fails to acknowledge is why prices have fallen at all. Decreasing prices without a change in these economic factors demonstrate that something else responsible for the initial run-up. No details were given about what this "something else" would have been because that would mean discussing looser lending standards and speculation; Basically the same things we share, at least to some degree, with the States.

Still, it's easy to see why some naysayers expect the housing market to continue to weaken. Consider this gloomy headline, which recently appeared atop the front page of one national newspaper: "Housing slump stalks Western Canada."

The accompanying story, based on a report from two Toronto-based economists at Merrill Lynch, said house prices in the major cities of Saskatchewan, Alberta and B.C. are overvalued by 10 per cent, and a "sustained downturn" may be at hand.

The Merrill report is here. It says that those cities are overvalued by more than 10%, with Edmonton overvalued by 25%.

Well, here's the thing. That would have been useful advice a year ago. Not so today. As noted, Alberta's real estate markets have already corrected.

While the average price of a single-detached home in Edmonton fell 9.1per cent through July, on a year-over-year basis, comparable homes in Calgary fell nearly 10 per cent, to $456,380.

So when referencing the Merrill report for Edmonton it uses 10% instead of 25% overvalued. Now that prices have dropped 9% it's "all corrected, time for dessert". Well even then the Merrill report attempts to account for the correction which it had modeled Edmonton at 34% overvalued in 2007 which has decreased to 25% in 2008 with price drops included. Note to Edmonton Journal - READ THE REPORT!

The rest of the article I agree with regarding Saskatoon and Vancouver entering into a downturn. They are going to git hit worse than Edmonton going forward. But I didn't read anything convincing in this article that tells me Edmonton is done.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Apparently prices in Edmonton in Calgary are stable. This from the Edmonton Journal Article Housing-start decline not a sign of dying market

First, consider overall housing prices in Calgary and Edmonton. In both cities, prices in June are off only slightly from the peak record highs reached last July. They're down 3.6 per cent in Calgary, and 3.8 per cent in Edmonton -- hardly a sign of collapsing prices. In fact, for a full year now, prices in the resale market have been remarkably stable.

Let;s look at Edmonton here. The statistic used is for average price for all properties which dropped from $354,718 to $341,376. However a look at prices by most any other measures would totally invalidate the article.

Some other numbers of price drop July 07 - June 08 from

Realtor Association of Edmonton (Edmonton CMA)

SFH Average $417,150 to $381,384 -8.6%
SFH Median $395,000 to $365,000 -7.6%
Condo Average $271,908 to 262,365 -3.5%
No Condo Median available

From Bob Truman's site (Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain)
SFH Average $442,753 to $399,604 -9.7%
SFH Median $410,000 to $368,000 -10.2%
SFH Price per square foot $321 to $280 -12.8%
Condo Average $275,905 to $261,318 -5.3%
Condo Median $269,000 to $245,900 -8.6%
Condo Price per square foot $285 to $257 -9.2%

Here is a breakdown of Edmonton regions YOY price change. I didn't hav access to July 2007 regional prices.

Edmonton Regional Prices for June 2008 (detached)
		2008	2007
NORTHWEST	AVERAGE	338135	346172	-2.38%
NORTHWEST	MEDIAN	318000	348000	-9.43%
NORTH	AVERAGE	356462	405401	-13.73%
NORTH	MEDIAN	346250	385000	-11.19%
NORTHEAST	AVERAGE	297946	355189	-19.21%
NORTHEAST	MEDIAN	295450	343000	-16.09%
CENTRAL	AVERAGE	290966	278306	4.35%
CENTRAL	MEDIAN	252500	270000	-6.93%
WEST	AVERAGE	428566	511958	-19.46%
WEST	MEDIAN	402500	430000	-6.83%
SOUTHWEST	AVERAGE	457560	566179	-23.74%
SOUTHWEST	MEDIAN	419600	515000	-22.74%
SOUTHEAST	AVERAGE	356244	431395	-21.10%
SOUTHEAST	MEDIAN	339000	399950	-17.98%
ST. ALBERT	AVERAGE	449903	514678	-14.40%
ST. ALBERT	MEDIAN	424000	478700	-12.90%
SHERWOOD PARK	AVERAGE	443069	480363	-8.42%
SHERWOOD PARK	MEDIAN	423500	451000	-6.49%
LEDUC	AVERAGE	347915	401140	-15.30%
LEDUC	MEDIAN	330000	373450	-13.17%
SPRUCE GROVE	AVERAGE	377174	418583	-10.98%
SPRUCE GROVE	MEDIAN	361324	402500	-11.40%
STONY PLAIN	AVERAGE	390452	401990	-2.96%
STONY PLAIN	MEDIAN	364500	395000	-8.37%
MORINVILLE	AVERAGE	354745	345309	2.66%
MORINVILLE	MEDIAN	353000	335000	5.10%
FORT SASKATCHEWAN	AVERAGE	371281	381228	-2.68%
FORT SASKATCHEWAN	MEDIAN	355000	370000	-4.23%

Remarkably stable.

I wanted to rip on the article more... but I really don't think anyone takes the Edmonton Journal seriously anyway.

Unobfuscating May Stats

The monthly numbers are out for Edmonton and Calgary and there is a lot to cover.

From Edmonton's report: Never been a better time to buy a home, says REALTORS® Association

May sales exceeded same month sales in 2003 and 2004 but were below May sales for 2005-2007 when the market was super-heated.

WRONG. May sales were in fact below those of 2004. There were 1961 residential sales during May 2004 compared to 1821 May 2008. From archived stats.

The title is laughable. What was the REALTORs Association saying last year this time? From May 2007 report:

“Rising prices are forcing buyers to explore their housing options. People are being priced into the condo market,” said Pratt. “May figures demonstrate that the trend has not yet abated.” She urged both buyers and sellers to consult a REALTOR® before venturing into the market. “With the average price of a single family dwelling rising by over $400 a day, you need the latest market figures that only a REALTOR® can provide.”

Totally disingenuous! When the stats demonstrated a price increase in 2007 the it was extrapolated going forward. With decreasing prices it is now a great time to buy.

Calgary has the same theme: BUYERS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION – HOMES ARE ON SALE TODAY!

Calgary, June 2, 2008 – “Now is not the time to wait until the sale is over and then decide to buy; after you read a headline, the best time to buy has passed,” cautioned, CREB® President, Ed Jensen. Home inventories are high; buyers are reaping the benefits of selection and are able to negotiate the best sale price and terms. Today’s market presents buyers with great purchasing opportunities, according to information released by the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Was similar logic used during the run up? Did CREB ever warn buyers that homes were too expensive during the boom? Did they anticipate this "sale"? Seems like it has been a "short term buying opportunity" for awhile now.

Fact is sales are low, inventory is high and the spring market is closing. Remember the talking heads were counting on spring for the rebound. Here is an interesting article from the one and only Calgary Herald:

Housing market set to catch spring fever

...

Another factor could be that people get over the end of the year and have received their bonuses. This may be giving them some incentive to upgrade homes.

"The dominant factor is seasonality. People are getting out of hibernation mode and they want to get out and enjoy the spring weather and view show homes," he said.

...