Saturday, May 3, 2008

CREB Buyer's Market Update

The CREB has cooled down somewhat and acknowledged the buyer's marker in their most recent update. Let's look back at one indicator they have been using to track the market, and how it has been changed over time.

Below are some charts showing absorption rates from the CREB monthly reports. The absorption rate is the number of months it would take to clear inventory assuming sales remain constant.

Absorption rate = Total inventory/monthly sales

Here is the July 2007 report. Note the blue band indicating a balanced market. Between 2-3.5 months inventory.
In the August 2007 report the absorption rate just exceeds the balanced market.

For September 2007 the absorption rate heads up as sales decline and inventory increases. As this value goes way outside the balanced market range the label is conveniently moved up.
Update:

For April 2008 the top of the previous balanced market range has moved up to 4 months.


Source CREB statistics: here
See original post here

7 comments:

Carioca Canuck said...

This is absolutely amazing.......

You may want to cross post this on other RE blogs....they'll eat it up.

Anonymous said...

They should change the label above the blue zone to "more balanced"

TulipBoy said...

Perpetual balance?

Jim_s said...

Well, I must say I'm not surprised. I've been thinking something this low or even lower would come from the bottom dwelling scum suckers.

Glad to see they've resorted to more spin and more public credibility. Good job BC.

I can't imagine being a ramen and living in the constant throws of trying to fool people that think you're an idiot. What a lame existence. What a joke of a profession. Is it a profession?

-

Anonymous said...

Yep, I looked at the stats on the CREB website you linked and you are absolutely correct that they are creeping up the Y axis shaded zone. Even then it is impossible to hide the fact that it is a truly monumental buyers market. I would love to file a complaint with the better business bureau that the CREB is manipulating data to cheat buyers....

Pierre said...

Jim_s said:

"I can't imagine being a ramen and living in the constant throws of trying to fool people that think you're an idiot. What a lame existence. What a joke of a profession. Is it a profession?"

If you asked your buddy carioca canuck, the failed bank teller turned used ford pinto salesman, he will say the ramens are all horrible, and that coming from a used pinto salesboy that must lie through his ugly teeth is impressive!!!

Anonymous said...

Why not email them and ask? I mean seriously whats the harm, 'sarcasm on' maybe they have a perfectly good explination for the widening band 'sarcasm off'

http://www.creb.com/public/contactus/cont-boardofdirectors.php

For example:

1) inventory is crazy so if we keep widening the band, when it starts to come down, it only has alittle way to go before we can say its a balanced market.

2) we figured no one would notice.

3) Oops its a "typo".

4) we don't control the band "it just happens".

5) "Software glitch". (and won't be repaired thus becoming the new standard)

6) We don't know what your talking about...