Monday, December 31, 2007
Edmonton Real Estate Board removes false information from their June 2007 press release without correction.
Confusing Comfree sales statistics sold to listings change to sales success and removed afterwards.
Calgary Real Estate Board spinning seasonality and changing graphs but nothing too overt.
Edmonton Journal uses quote from 2005 'Bubble Watch' study in 2007 article. The 2005 study referred to Edmonton not being a bubble before prices doubled. Small two line correction put into print afterwards but not online. See article and the study from 2 years earlier.
Alberta mortgage brokers encourage not reporting income as described by revenue Canada and setting up illegal basement suites to GIT-R-DONE.
CMHC encourages gambling.
Cheers! Have a safe and happy New Year!
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Regardless of the boom and the city you live in, buying your first home is always tough.However, In the 1990s buying a home in Edmonton was easier. And if you waited a year or so it was no big deal. Below is a chart of % after tax household income dedicated to mortgage payment from RBC Housing Affordability study. Note how all property types are currently less affordable now than at any other time in the chart range.
This number takes into account wages and interest rates so it is a good picture of relative difficulty of getting into the market. It assumes a 25% down payment which is much more difficult to get now because of the appreciation of the last few years. The author of the article was prudent enough to save $10,000 or 18% down payment in 1992 and gives the following advice:
The cheapest 2 bdrm townhouse in west Edmonton is currently about $200,000. An equivalent 18% down payment today is $36,000. How is it possible to buy sooner rather than later and save up that kind of money? To illustrate see the following average price chart for Edmonton showing both nominal and inflation adjusted prices. A certain percentage down payment will be proportional to the nominal amount and its relative size in terms of buying power would be proportional to the inflation adjust series.
Buy what you can afford: I know you might think it's tough in this market but don't push yourself to the limit.
Too many people are stretching amortization periods and putting down very small down payments.
Bottom line is the article is simply not applicable in 2007 Edmonton.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Also interesting is Canadian interactive pricing map (These stats are averages and include condos).
|Youngstown-Warren-Boardman||OH - PA||$81,600|
|Saginaw-Saginaw Township North||MI||$84,900|
|Davenport-Moline-Rock Island||IA - IL||$114,600|
|Little Rock-N. Little Rock||AR||$131,600|
|Chattanooga||TN - GA||$133,200|
|Memphis||TN - MS - AR||$141,300|
|Louisville||KY - IN||$141,900|
|Omaha||NE - IA||$142,800|
|Cincinnati-Middletown||OH - KY - IN||$145,300|
|Fargo||ND - MN||$145,700|
|Saint Louis||MO - IL||$150,500|
|Kansas City||MO - KS||$157,000|
|Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach||FL||$195,000|
|Hagerstown-Martinsburg||MD - WV||$208,400|
|Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord||NC - SC||$220,100|
|Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington||MN - WI||$229,600|
|Cape Coral-Fort Myers||FL||$236,700|
|Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington||PA - NJ - DE||$243,000|
|Salt Lake City||UT||$246,700|
|Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News||VA - NC||$255,000|
|Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford||CT||$270,100|
|Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton||PA - NJ||$272,900|
|Providence-New Bedford-Fall River||RI - MA||$291,000|
|Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton||OE - WA||$299,700|
|Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach||FL||$346,800|
|Boston-Cambridge-Quincy**||MA - NH||$414,700|
|Washington-Arlington-Alexandria||DC - VA - MD||$438,000|
|NY: Newark-Union||NJ - PA||$459,700|
|New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island||NY - NJ - PA||$476,100|
|New York-Wayne-White Plains||NY - NJ||$550,900|
|Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana||CA||$588,400|
|San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos||CA||$589,300|
|Fort McMurray (Average)||AB||$635,325|
|San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara||CA||$852,500 |
CMHC Housing Market Outlook Spring 2007
CMHC Housing Market Outlook Fall 2007
CMHC Rental Market Report 2007
CMHC has changed their forecast(s) for Edmonton a couple of times this year.
Vacancy and two bedroom rent:
This spring the outlook on vacancy was 0.7% the actual vacancy was 1.5%.
Spring 2007 Housing Outlook
2007(f) 0.7% $970
2008(f) 0.5% $1115
Fall 2007 Housing Outlook
2007(f) 1.0% $950
2008(f) 0.8% $1090
October 2007 survey
2007 1.5% $958
The forecast for sales in 2007 was cut by almost 3,000 and may be lower after December's count.
Spring 2007 Housing Outlook
Fall 2007 Housing Outlook
November EREB YTD sales 19,687, assuming 1000 sales in December:
The forecast change for listings increased from 28,000 to 38,000.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
March - “There are lots of stories about the slowdown or reversal of certain American housing markets,” said Pratt. “But all markets are local and Edmonton is unique in that the fundamentals of low interest rates, strong demand, low inventory, steady in-migration and high consumer confidence are still driving our local economy.”
April - “Price increases may moderate slightly as the market returns to pre-boom levels but I do not anticipate that actual prices will decrease.”
May - “With the average price of a single family dwelling rising by over $400 a day, you need the latest market figures that only a REALTOR® can provide.”
June - “The fundamentals of the Edmonton market are still strong and should sustain steadily rising prices for all classes of property,”
August - “REALTORS® are optimistic and see any price dips as temporary and within the normal range for this market.”
November - “As the current listings become sold or are withdrawn the current inventory will drop. As we move into the spring with a more normal inventory, we expect that prices will again begin to rise slowly,"
Update (thanks rj):
Added another chart based on the quote found in the Edmonton Journal April 4, 2007.
This chart compares the prediction made by the EREB after March stats were released to what has actually happened.
In only the first three months of this year, average home prices have climbed 12.4 per cent, so Pratt has abandoned her earlier forecast of a 15 per cent increase for the full year.
"We're predicting that prices will continue to rise until August, at four to five per cent per month, then at two per cent per month," she said today.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Typical season slow down comes to the MLS(R) during the month of November 2007, according to figures released by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB(R))
Single family Calgary metro sales for November 2007 were 1,103, a decrease of 21 per cent from the 1,397 sales recorded in November 2006...link
Sales in November 2007 21% less than November 2006.
Sales in November 2006 11% less than November 2005.
CREB Nov 2006
It's getting cold out there.