Wednesday, December 19, 2007

CMHC forecast changes

Here are some forecast changes by CMHC over 2007 in the following reports:

CMHC Housing Market Outlook Spring 2007
CMHC Housing Market Outlook Fall 2007
CMHC Rental Market Report 2007

CMHC has changed their forecast(s) for Edmonton a couple of times this year.

Vacancy and two bedroom rent:

This spring the outlook on vacancy was 0.7% the actual vacancy was 1.5%.

Spring 2007 Housing Outlook
2007(f) 0.7% $970
2008(f) 0.5% $1115

Fall 2007 Housing Outlook
2007(f) 1.0% $950
2008(f) 0.8% $1090

October 2007 survey
2007 1.5% $958

MLS Sales

The forecast for sales in 2007 was cut by almost 3,000 and may be lower after December's count.

Residential Sales

Spring 2007 Housing Outlook
2007(f) 24,000
2008(f) 22,600

Fall 2007 Housing Outlook
2007(f) 21,200
2008(f) 20,000

November EREB YTD sales 19,687, assuming 1000 sales in December:
20,700

The forecast change for listings increased from 28,000 to 38,000.

9 comments:

rjt said...

Good blog, just discovered it. I especially like the chart where you show the Edmonton realtor forecasts for 2007 and then actuals. I suggest you send this to the Edmonton papers every time they quotes the realtor association garbage.

Anonymous said...

when realtots supply the information to the chmc via there protected market stats
it would be easy to say that there "guesses" have an agenda

squid

Anonymous said...

some good videos on housing
tinyurl.com/yfw62g..u.k. house price bust..but simmilar to edm/cgy

tinyurl.com/2fphpx..price roller-coaster

your blog tackles a more serious under side to the goings on in re
and that will be respected

squid

BearClaw said...

squid,

Good video. It had articles from 2005 and the UK market, especially London, continued to increase until very recently. So some of the bubble followers had egg on their faces for awhile ;-) However, the UK is FINALLY starting the decline and perhaps the video will be seen the same as calling a tech bubble a year early.

link

brent said...

Great site Bearclaw. I especially like the EREB and CMHC forecasts and what actually happened. Keep up the good work.

frankbot said...

Compared to Dec 2006, condo average price is up 11%, median is up 14%. CREB predicted an increase of 9% for 2007

Not bad, eh?

frankbot said...

It seems creb is more on the ball than ereb. And what's up with ereb's webpage? it looks like a joke...

brent said...

Look at Fort Mac house prices, a one horse town work camp that has 2months of summer. The big pay cheques being made up there are being spent up there just to make ends meet.
To funny!

BearClaw said...

frankbot,

Actually that is not too bad for the CREB. Its too bad that the EREB gave up on their original forecast of 15% for this one.

link