Edmonton Forecast Check

September was a good month for sales in Edmonton and the topic was covered in the article Edmonton home sales skyrocket in September. Perras' forecast from the beginning of the year was brought up -

Perras forecasted sales volume for 2008 would reach "reasonably strong" volumes similar to 2005, before the market spiked in 2006.

Here is the text from the original forecast from January 9th

The total number of residential sales in 2008 will probably drop slightly from 2007 levels. Perras expects that 19,100 residential properties will sell through the MLS® in 2008. There were 20,544 sales in 2007.

Initially it called for more sales than in 2005 (19,100 compared to 18,634) and currently we are running slightly behind the sales of 2005:

	2005	2008	Difference
JANUARY	886	1227	341
FEBRUARY	1257	1287	30
MARCH	1680	1557	-123
APRIL	1802	1823	21
MAY	2098	1821	-277
JUNE	2134	1852	-282
JULY	1610	1784	174
AUGUST	1934	1541	-393
SEPTEMBER	1547	1729	182
OCTOBER	1333
NOVEMBER	1445
DECEMBER	908
Total (Jan – Sep)	14948	14621	-327

Also looking at prices the forecast called for 4% increase across the board. Compare this to what we have now

Perras anticipates that prices for all types of residential property will increase gradually through 2008 and finish the year about 4% higher than the current price. If the forecast is accurate then single family detached homes will sell for $397,303 next year and condos will be priced at $263,400.

	01/12/06	Peak Price	01/12/07	Forecast Dec 2008	Sept 2008
SFD	341933	426028	382022	397303	362097
Condo	227428	271908	253270	263401	252234
Duplex/Rowhouse	295178	367964	306967	319246	315690
All Residential	294155	354718	329705	342893	324906

And inventory:

The current inventory of residential properties is now 7,094 homes. The inventory will decrease through the year but the wide choice of properties will have a dampening effect on prices offsetting increased demand from in-migration and economic growth. Condominiums are expected to become a stronger option (especially for first time buyers) because of the lower price point.

Right now inventory is at 8,808 it probably won't get much below where it began the year at 7,094, if at all.

Here are some previous posts regarding forecasts:

CMHC forecast changes
Klump on Calgary
Quote of the Day
EREB average price and analysis (2007)
Forward Looking Statements (2007)