Perras forecasted sales volume for 2008 would reach "reasonably strong" volumes similar to 2005, before the market spiked in 2006.
Here is the text from the original forecast from January 9th
The total number of residential sales in 2008 will probably drop slightly from 2007 levels. Perras expects that 19,100 residential properties will sell through the MLS® in 2008. There were 20,544 sales in 2007.
Initially it called for more sales than in 2005 (19,100 compared to 18,634) and currently we are running slightly behind the sales of 2005:
|Total (Jan – Sep)||14948||14621||-327|
Also looking at prices the forecast called for 4% increase across the board. Compare this to what we have now
Perras anticipates that prices for all types of residential property will increase gradually through 2008 and finish the year about 4% higher than the current price. If the forecast is accurate then single family detached homes will sell for $397,303 next year and condos will be priced at $263,400.
|01/12/06||Peak Price||01/12/07||Forecast Dec 2008||Sept 2008|
The current inventory of residential properties is now 7,094 homes. The inventory will decrease through the year but the wide choice of properties will have a dampening effect on prices offsetting increased demand from in-migration and economic growth. Condominiums are expected to become a stronger option (especially for first time buyers) because of the lower price point.
Right now inventory is at 8,808 it probably won't get much below where it began the year at 7,094, if at all.
Here are some previous posts regarding forecasts:
CMHC forecast changes
Klump on Calgary
Quote of the Day
EREB average price and analysis (2007)
Forward Looking Statements (2007)