Here are the charts once again. This time I'd like to know what the dozen or so readers out there have to say about them. One point - I estimated sales in some of these charts based on preliminary numbers.
Have a great weekend.
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18 comments:
Great work as always Bear, well I think we are at the point of change. Home sales in Alberta have collapsed but prices are still hanging in there, for now.
Whats going to create an increase in sales this time? Interest rates can go no lower, unemployment will increase or at best remain stagnant, deflation is firmly setting in and houses are grossly over priced.
If sales continue to fall I'm afraid home prices will go in only one direction, the only question is, wheres the bottom.
Squidly, it's important to keep things in perspective. You've been saying the same thing endlessly for years. All of these quotes were made before govts tampered with interest rates:
For example, you said
Nov 11, 2007:
“my prediction for an avg sfh is $160,000 or less..in a very short time”
Nov 8, 2007:
“shes all over now
shes toast
it couldnt be any plainer to see
prices wont fall to the 300,s
try $160,000 for an average sfh”
Feb 27, 2007:
“it realy is coming to an end”
Feb 24, 2007:
“its all falling apart now”
March 13,2008: “only a total fool would buy now
flashing lights and sirens are every where”
April 7, 2008:
“your gonna see a market meltdown”
April 8, 2008
“the gig is up
the ponzi game is coming to a predictable and tragic end
whos still in will lose big time”
Jun 25, 2008
“the great unwinding is virtually at hand”
Jun 30, 2008:
“your now gambling
and youll lose and big”
Jul 3, 2008:
the unwinding starts now”
Aug 16, 2008:
“you can see and smell the sheer panic and fear in the air
this could be awfull”
Oct 23, 2008:
“it will happen
a total and complete collapse”
“the canadian banks will die
and die fast”
Sep 2008
“total and complete madness
get ready for a 5,000 point dow”
“the whole world is melting down tonight”
“good luck home sellers cause your gonna need it”
“i dont want house prices to crash”
“a collapse is imminent”
“the great unwinding is upon us now”
GET OUT NOW !!!!
there is no recovery..
“very dark and very bad”
I would wager many people wished they had heeded the warnings about a stock market crash in 2008.
But it only fell to 6,600 points, however if not for massive government intervention it likely would have fallen to 3,000 points or so.
Jan 27, 2010 Squidly/Dan/Zoogle said on the albertabubbleblog
"gold will fall to $850/oz by the end of March, oil to $55."
where's gold today? $1340
Where's oil? $82
For the most part you get it wrong. Your overall track record would have put most people underwater.
You make so many predictions, one is bound to come true sooner or later(broken clock syndrome).
You simply enjoy hearing yourself scream.
"The Canadian Banks will die and die fast"
Canada is considered to have the safest banking system in the world.
After all your fearmongering, do you expect anyone to take you seriously now?
SBL,
Care to offer your own perspective?
Squidly, you criticize realtors, so let's take a look at the track record.
On Dec 10, 2006 on the old Contrarian blog you said: "well i say now re prices down by 40% by next summer
go ahead and laugh
you know im right"source
That would have put the average price at $243,000.
Bob Truman in Nov 2006 predicted for 2007 "We might see a rise of 5 - 10 % next year in average prices." source
Average price in 2007 increased 9.7%.
In summer 2007 the average price was $505,920.
You were off by 108%. BoB Truman had it right.
Bearclaw
My perspective is that there are a few loudmouths who make a lot of noise and get their enjoyment from scaring people.
There are some reasonable and intelligent people who have a much better handle on things. The track records bear this out.
Calgary house prices would have crashed hard a few years ago, but the we were given the 0/40 mortgage.
I decided to write this article today after closing a home purchase loan for a couple that had some major credit issues. They got into the house with ZERO down payment, and only had to bring $600 for the closing costs. Their situation was pretty bad, I’m talking about a bankruptcy 2 years ago, thousands of dollars in outstanding collections, charge-offs and debt to income ratio of 49%. By the way, we left all of their outstanding charge-offs and collections open which means they didn’t have to pay any of them off! So many think they won't be able to qualify for a mortgage loan. Many will keep thinking they can't qualify until they read this article. Voodoo mortgages
The only event that I got wrong was the amount of welfare granted to maintain the bubble for another few years.
Squidly, it's important to take those things into account BEFORE making your predictions.
It was well-known in the fall of 2006 that 40-year mortgages would be available.
You go off half-cocked while the intelligent people process all the critical factors.
Your predictions for the housing market have been laughable. Your timing has been pathetic. The realtors you ridicule have had the predictions and the timing correct.
Further to "It was well-known in the fall of 2006 that 40-year mortgages would be available."
Rob on the old Contrarian blog said on Nov 24, 2006 "credit is loosening, as a mortgage broker friend of mine told me that she is selling lots of 35 and 40 year mortgages now. It's about half of her business."
Squidly you posted 100 times a day on that blog so you can't use the excuse that you didn't know about 40-year mortgages.
I submit that your unhealthy obsession with realtors has skewed any logical thinking process.
You delete my comments on your blog when I make a valid and respectful argument. Koolaid pedlars such as yourself fear rational thought, logic, and reason.
Feb 13, 2007 at 10:00 pm Squidly said on the the old Contrarian blog
"no such thing a realtor being an expert on the future of re pricing"
LOL. Squidly off by 108%, realtor spot on.
http://calgary-housing.blogspot.com/2007/02/reader-predictions-for-this-hot-market.html#993436394597754454
Squidly, you've got some splainin' to do. You often mention your wife, but I read this comment by you on the old contrarian blog....
Squidly said on Dec 2006:
"by the way i do have access to the realtors site and watch closely
girlfriends a realtor and i can password in any time
me thinks your not being so honest right now"
http://calgary-housing.blogspot.com/2006_12_01_archive.html
You won't hire anyone who has been a realtor, but you'll have sex with them. Hmmmmm
Your hatred and obsession with realtors makes sense now. You've been screwed over by one.
Squidly is uncharacteristically silent on all the points I've raised here.
Does that say it all?
Squidly, I saw this on your blog today:
"Am I a man? Can I take responsibility for my words and advice? Or I am just an internet blowhard who doesn’t know their ass from a hole in the ground?"
The answer to the last question is a resounding YES
The REALTARDS(TM) are upset I see.....ROTFLMAO !!!!!!!!!!!
Keith I don't see any evidence of what you speak.
What I do see is Squidly running away and hiding when confronted with something he doesn't want to deal with, and an inability to discuss respectfully and intelligently.
In Squidly's own words "a yellow-bellied internet blowhard."
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