Showing posts with label Ed Jensen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ed Jensen. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Calgary Real Estate A Safe Haven?

Calgary real estate still a safe haven
Housing values enjoy steady increase
Appreciation has ranged from moderate levels a decade ago, to huge double digit gains and now declines. Not a steady increase.
"A residential home is the greatest long-term investment vehicle. The cost of land, materials and labour are not going down over the long term . . . The Calgary real estate market has weathered the current economic slowdown well. We've been working towards a normalized market since the first of the year. And slowly our inventory has been coming down and our market sales remain steady from January forward. I believe we'll continue to do so and we're perfectly positioned for long-term investment opportunities right now in this market if someone's looking to buy," said Jensen.
When stating the Calgary market has weathered the current economic slowdown well he is not considering the fallout that is yet to come. Pending sales of single family homes decreased from 334 to 206 in just over a month. Sales appear to have fallen faster than could be accounted for by seasonal factors from 1152 to an estimated 801 (based on the 698 so far this month from Mike's stats).

It is correct that inventory has come down from the peak in May but is up significantly from where it started the year in January.
"We may be in for some continued slower times for this quarter, but I believe this is the kind of market where real estate bargain hunters can find those great deals, but if you're not out there looking you can't find the best deal. And it's hard to negotiate the best deal when the market has turned the corner and everybody's buying," said Jensen. "I believe there are people out there just trying to time the market like the stock market."
This is not considering the people who simply cannot afford real estate or those saving up for a down payment. Finally take a look at some other articles regarding the upcoming market recovery:

From July 5th: Calgary Resale market seen as turning corner.
Calgary Herald had another article from January: Housing market set to catch spring fever.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Homes are on sale, Stocks are not safe

Ed Jensen makes the case that real estate is a safer investment due to the turbulence in the stock market in the Calgary Sun article Seller's market returning:

Investing in real estate in Calgary, he said, is a safer investment than putting money into the stock market.

The main index of the Toronto Stock Exchange fell more than 600 points yesterday in yet another day of turbulent market swings.

"People should take note," he said.

Isn't it precious that when home prices fall they are "on sale" or represent oppurtunity but when stocks fall they become a dangerous investment?

May 2008 CREB Report
BUYERS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION – HOMES ARE ON SALE TODAY!
“Now is not the time to wait until the sale is over and then decide to buy; after you read a headline, the best time to buy has passed,” cautioned, CREB® President, Ed Jensen.

Also the title of the article "Seller's market Returning" may be a couple weeks outdated. Sales were good in Edmonton last month and were decent for Calgary and listings were down. For the first half on October sales/listing ratio appears to be back in buyers market territory. A buyer's market is described by less than 40% ratio while over 60% is a seller's market. From Bob Truman's Stats:

Edmonton Sale/New List Ratio
SFH/Condo
July 2007 51% / 41%
Aug 2007 50% / 44%
Sept 2008 53% / 45%
Oct 1-14 2008 40% / 32%

Calgary
Sale/New Listings Ratio
SFH/Condo
July 2007 51% / 45%
Aug 2007 52% / 47%
Sept 2008 44% / 39%
Oct 1-13 2008 36% / 36%

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Calgary July Stats

CREB released the July stats for Calgary. I have to commend the Calgary Real Estate Bubble Blog for calling Ed Jensen's sales pitch regarding 40-year mortgages:
“Buyers who wish to take advantage of the zero down mortgage program will need to hurry as this program, and the 40 year amortization program, are discontinuing shortly. Buyers can get more information about these programs from their REALTOR®.” concluded, Jensen.
Ed Jensen, August 1, 2008

I'm expecting Realtors (some who are struggling) across Canada to further increase their advertising/marketing budgets from now till October 15, 2008. With sales down 30%-40% yoy already, what will most of them do after that date?
I can already envision the new emergency marketing slogan:

"The best time to buy is now - before October 15, 2008."
CREBB July 9th, 2008


What did Ed Jensen say about these loans on July 12th?

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the Crown corporation providing mortgage insurance on behalf of the government, eased the rules in 2006 to encourage homebuying.

That change, Jensen said, had little impact at the time.

"We didn't notice it in the market place," he said.

"So I believe in reverse, I don't think we're going to see a large impact on sales."

Funny that after these loans were introduced Calgary saw huge numbers in sales and prices and he didn't notice them. He seems to have noticed enough to make a sales pitch. See previous post.

Saturday, July 12, 2008

Ed Jensen on 40-year mortgages

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the Crown corporation providing mortgage insurance on behalf of the government, eased the rules in 2006 to encourage homebuying.

That change, Jensen said, had little impact at the time.

"We didn't notice it in the market place," he said.

"So I believe in reverse, I don't think we're going to see a large impact on sales."

Stunning remarks from Ed Jensen appearing in the Calgary Sun's article - Mortgage Rule Change Dismissed. I don't expect Ed Jensen to go Housing Panic on us, but it would be nice to at least recognized basic realities when forming arguments. Don't take it from me, a bitter renter, that the statement is absurd, rather look to the financial industry. There is a broad consensus that these now defunct mortgages were popular among first time borrowers and helped stoke demand in real estate.

Longer payback loan fuels housing market:
"About 60 per cent of first-time buyers are opting for a 40-year mortgage," says Craig Alexander, deputy chief economist at TD Bank.

"If these longer amortization mortgages hadn't been around, the housing market would have cooled down a lot sooner."
....

There's a "huge adoption" of 40-year mortgages in Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver, where people stretch for affordability, says Catherine Adams, vice-president of home equity financing at Royal Bank of Canada. "I think it's given the housing market a boost and allowed prices to go up further than they would have otherwise."
...

Mortgages with longer amortizations grew to 37 per cent of new home loans – and 9 per cent of outstanding mortgages.

"That's phenomenal, considering they have been around for only the last two to three years," says association president Jim Murphy.


Stretched buyers fuel boom in housing:
Legions of first-timers are adding years of extra mortgage payments so they can buy a house, or putting little or no money into a down payment, a Re/Max survey revealed yesterday. Nearly two-thirds of buyers in major centres now favour extended amortization periods of up to 40 years, while putting little or no money down was prevalent in 38 per cent of regional markets surveyed across Canada.
...

"The reason we think the market has been staying hotter much longer than anyone anticipated was because of these newer amortization mortgages," said Craig Alexander at Toronto-Dominion Bank.
...
Longer amortization mortgages "have had a very profound impact on the Canadian housing market since they were introduced" in 2006, he added.

Dodge warns of inflated housing market
Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge is raising a red flag about housing prices in Canada, saying that increasingly loose lending rules may be helping overheat the country's real estate market.

‘Innovations’ in lending minimize drop in new-home construction

Lofty prices in the country’s hottest markets, particularly Western Canada, would likely take a much bigger bite out of new construction if it weren’t for longer-term mortgage products, said Derek Holt, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

Last year, the federal government extended the maximum amortization period for mortgages from 25 years to up to 40 years.

Consumers have embraced these products, which raise the cost of a mortgage over time but lower the entry hurdle to buying a home because the longer payment period allows for smaller monthly payments.

“It’s my belief we would be 10 to 20 per cent below 200,000 housing starts next year if it wasn’t for the impact of these mortgage innovations,” Mr. Holt said.


Bleak house outlook? Not in Canada

Economist Derek Holt does warn, however, that the increasing popularity of long-duration mortgages to reduce monthly expenses could cause problems later on.

"Alberta, and then Ontario, lead the country on the take-up rates for new mortgage products introduced over the past two years," he said yesterday. "In fact, the 40-year mortgage is now only about 15 months old and already dominating mortgage purchase applications."


Homes in Edmonton, Saskatoon most overvalued

A rise in the number of extended-amortization mortgages, which lengthen the time it takes to repay a home loan to 30, 35 or 40 years from the traditional 25, have bolstered the recent strength of Canada's housing market, Ms. Warren said. These mortgages are stretching affordability for first-time home buyers, but because they are seldom combined with zero-down or interest-only structures, she does not seen them as particularly risky.

“I don't think this is a major risk, though it is supporting the housing boom more and we probably would have seen things level off this year instead of reaching a new peak,” Ms. Warren said.

Canadian housing boom over, says RBC

"The delayed arrival of softer housing markets can be partly attributed to recent mortgage innovation that has seeped into the Canadian market during the last two years," it said, citing higher loan-to-value ratios and longer amortization periods of up to 40 years, which opened the market to a wider range of buyers and prolonged the boom.

The mortgage-market innovations, which make housing more affordable in the short term, also heighten the risk of default in the long term, it said.

Markets in the West, which have risen the furthest above their underlying values, are the most at risk of an increase in defaults as a result of recent mortgage innovations, the report's author, RBC economist Amy Goldbloom, said in an interview.


Credit squeeze hits 40-year mortgages
Feisal Panjwani, a senior mortgage consultant with Invis in Cloverdale estimates that 85 to 90 per cent of his first-time buyers have chosen the 40-year option.
...
"That zero-down program has been quite popular," Panjwani said.

Monday, July 7, 2008

Fairy Tales

The first tale is that of "stabilizing prices" as described in the Calgary Herald article Calgary home sales continue decline, prices hold steady

Calgary's residential real estate market in the first half of this year has been marked by declining sales, increasing listings and stabilizing average sale prices compared with a year ago.

Stabilizing is present tense and indicates that prices are continuing to stabilize. Taking a year-to-date average of prices 2008 is comparable to 2007:

And the average sale price in both markets is close to a year ago - up by 0.20 per cent for single-family homes ($472,163) and down by 0.76 per cent for condos ($312,460), according to statistics released by the Calgary Real Estate Board on Wednesday.
However looking closer look at the trend prices are decreasing compared to a year ago not stabilizing. From CREB stats

YOY Average price change:
Jan: SFH +5.18% condo +8.33%
Jun: SFH -4.65% condo -2.55%

Note that median prices, prices are down over 7% YOY. Remember when the median was supposed to be the stat of choice?

Another tale is the notion of things picking up in the fall from Ed Jensen.

In a news release, CREB president Ed Jensen said the sales numbers "reflect that more buyers are finding a home that fits their family's needs. As we move into the summer months, it's an excellent time for buyers to capitalize on the wide selection of homes, rather than waiting for the fall when things start to pick up again."

Fall with winter are typically the slowest seasons for sales. So its totally mystifying to predict thing starting to pick up then. See the chart below from CREB which i roughly highlighted September to December.

This clearly demonstrates that Ed Jensen is creating a false sense of urgency to promote sales instead of presenting information in a useful way.

Another gem is from this article Calgary resale market seen as turning corner. Calgary resale market seen as turning corner.

"The inventory could normalize very quickly," says Jensen. "There are several double listings out there -- people who have listed both their existing home and their new home -- and if one sells, they would pull the other one off the market."

First there are no numbers available to what extent this is taking place and how this differs from historic norms. Even if this is correct it is not all positive for the market. Generally people with two homes are more motivated. They would be motivated enough to ignore their preference of moving into the new home to increase their chance of selling by listing both. I would argue that in some cases this could be considered speculation. For example boomers that instead of downsizing now have two full-sized homes.

There is another good read regarding the Calgary Herald, Ed Jensen and fairy tales posted on the Calgary Bubble Blog

From Edmonton Marc Perras from the EREB is also creating a sense of urgency:

“Some buyers seem to think that further discounts are possible and are delaying their buying decision unnecessarily. The market finds its own level and has varied within a three percent range over the last six months. REALTORS® have buyers who are staring down the sellers but sometime soon someone will have to blink.”

This is another tall tale which implies that Edmonton in a lull as buyers wait down sellers. This is not a new idea and has been argued before. From Carolyn Pratt, EREB President 2007 EREB Archives.

“Buyers have a large selection of homes to choose from and they are taking more time to make a
decision,”
Aug 7, 2007

Panicked home buyers were forced to make decisions quickly from a severely limited selection of houses and condos. At the end of the third quarter of 2007 buyers are more relaxed as they contemplate slightly lower prices and three times the choice of a year ago.
Oct 3, 2007

“Buyers, on the other hand, took their time selecting a property to purchase in the
hopes that prices would drop further.”
Nov 5, 2007

I have not seen once the argument that lower sales are the result of higher prices. You know ECON 101 stuff. This absence demonstrates a bias which is not surprising but should still be acknowledged. There is also a theme which is similar to Ed Jensen`s comments that buyers should be buying now. I don`t seem to recall this type of urgency in the normal market before the boom. This is trying to bring back the boom mentality of buying early to avoid escalating prices. However buyers should note that this time period was an anomaly and buying a home should be carefully considered in a normal market.