Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Apparently prices in Edmonton in Calgary are stable. This from the Edmonton Journal Article Housing-start decline not a sign of dying market

First, consider overall housing prices in Calgary and Edmonton. In both cities, prices in June are off only slightly from the peak record highs reached last July. They're down 3.6 per cent in Calgary, and 3.8 per cent in Edmonton -- hardly a sign of collapsing prices. In fact, for a full year now, prices in the resale market have been remarkably stable.

Let;s look at Edmonton here. The statistic used is for average price for all properties which dropped from $354,718 to $341,376. However a look at prices by most any other measures would totally invalidate the article.

Some other numbers of price drop July 07 - June 08 from

Realtor Association of Edmonton (Edmonton CMA)

SFH Average $417,150 to $381,384 -8.6%
SFH Median $395,000 to $365,000 -7.6%
Condo Average $271,908 to 262,365 -3.5%
No Condo Median available

From Bob Truman's site (Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain)
SFH Average $442,753 to $399,604 -9.7%
SFH Median $410,000 to $368,000 -10.2%
SFH Price per square foot $321 to $280 -12.8%
Condo Average $275,905 to $261,318 -5.3%
Condo Median $269,000 to $245,900 -8.6%
Condo Price per square foot $285 to $257 -9.2%

Here is a breakdown of Edmonton regions YOY price change. I didn't hav access to July 2007 regional prices.

Edmonton Regional Prices for June 2008 (detached)

2008 2007
NORTHWEST AVERAGE 338135 346172 -2.38%
NORTHWEST MEDIAN 318000 348000 -9.43%
NORTH AVERAGE 356462 405401 -13.73%
NORTH MEDIAN 346250 385000 -11.19%
NORTHEAST AVERAGE 297946 355189 -19.21%
NORTHEAST MEDIAN 295450 343000 -16.09%
CENTRAL AVERAGE 290966 278306 4.35%
CENTRAL MEDIAN 252500 270000 -6.93%
WEST AVERAGE 428566 511958 -19.46%
WEST MEDIAN 402500 430000 -6.83%
SOUTHWEST AVERAGE 457560 566179 -23.74%
SOUTHWEST MEDIAN 419600 515000 -22.74%
SOUTHEAST AVERAGE 356244 431395 -21.10%
SOUTHEAST MEDIAN 339000 399950 -17.98%

ST. ALBERT AVERAGE 449903 514678 -14.40%
ST. ALBERT MEDIAN 424000 478700 -12.90%
SHERWOOD PARK AVERAGE 443069 480363 -8.42%
SHERWOOD PARK MEDIAN 423500 451000 -6.49%
LEDUC AVERAGE 347915 401140 -15.30%
LEDUC MEDIAN 330000 373450 -13.17%
SPRUCE GROVE AVERAGE 377174 418583 -10.98%
SPRUCE GROVE MEDIAN 361324 402500 -11.40%
STONY PLAIN AVERAGE 390452 401990 -2.96%
STONY PLAIN MEDIAN 364500 395000 -8.37%
MORINVILLE AVERAGE 354745 345309 2.66%
MORINVILLE MEDIAN 353000 335000 5.10%
FORT SASKATCHEWAN AVERAGE 371281 381228 -2.68%
FORT SASKATCHEWAN MEDIAN 355000 370000 -4.23%

Remarkably stable.

I wanted to rip on the article more... but I really don't think anyone takes the Edmonton Journal seriously anyway.


squidly77 said...

too true bearclaw
your best post to date

Anonymous said...

It's funny how the realtor associations simply pick and choose which stat to use in any given month to show their "story" in a positive light.

It's sad how the mainstream press simply reports the spin as if it's news, and not ask any "critical" questions.

I vote that you, Bearclaw, start reporting for the Edmonton Journal.


Anonymous said...

Funny how it is now revealed how patently dishonest REALTORs are, but nobody cares about the same dishonesty as the bubble inflates... could the former (with BoC mee-tooism rate cuts)bear on the latter?

And the Edmonton Journal? Please. Journalism has not been part of that paper for, like, ever.

Anonymous said...

Great post, well titled!

It's incredibily annoying that a few papers chose to take EREB or CREB ad cash over reporting truth and facts. In Calgary the average price is down this month $20,000 over last month, the but median is up $6500... which do you think they'll hype?

Another data tactic I'm waiting to see is 5 YoY comparo. If you look at prices over 5 years ago, prices are up! :)

It's amazing just how bias realtors and some newspapers are. What's the point of reading ANY of their biased articles at all? Might as well put them on the "National Enquirer" rack... Ah, that would be a laugh if the Enquirer wrote a piece about the current USA housing boom/hot market and the Realtors used that as facts... "Must be true, we read it in the Enquirer!"

Thanks S77 for posting the link to this from the BubbleBlog.


Anonymous said...

I am so glad I found a place that speaks the truth about the current real estate market in our province. Realtors are at the bottom of the food chain in my mind. Last year I was transfered and needed to move from Edmonton to Calgary. I kept on asking the realtor what we could expect from the market. He said stable growth of 5-6 % a year. The condo I bought last July (2007) has lost 20% of its value and I live in the most sought after central location. Realtors are bottom-feeders. Thanks for letting me rant.