Unobfuscating May Stats

The monthly numbers are out for Edmonton and Calgary and there is a lot to cover.

From Edmonton's report: Never been a better time to buy a home, says REALTORS® Association

May sales exceeded same month sales in 2003 and 2004 but were below May sales for 2005-2007 when the market was super-heated.

WRONG. May sales were in fact below those of 2004. There were 1961 residential sales during May 2004 compared to 1821 May 2008. From archived stats.

The title is laughable. What was the REALTORs Association saying last year this time? From May 2007 report:

“Rising prices are forcing buyers to explore their housing options. People are being priced into the condo market,” said Pratt. “May figures demonstrate that the trend has not yet abated.” She urged both buyers and sellers to consult a REALTOR® before venturing into the market. “With the average price of a single family dwelling rising by over $400 a day, you need the latest market figures that only a REALTOR® can provide.”

Totally disingenuous! When the stats demonstrated a price increase in 2007 the it was extrapolated going forward. With decreasing prices it is now a great time to buy.

Calgary has the same theme: BUYERS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION – HOMES ARE ON SALE TODAY!

Calgary, June 2, 2008 – “Now is not the time to wait until the sale is over and then decide to buy; after you read a headline, the best time to buy has passed,” cautioned, CREB® President, Ed Jensen. Home inventories are high; buyers are reaping the benefits of selection and are able to negotiate the best sale price and terms. Today’s market presents buyers with great purchasing opportunities, according to information released by the Calgary Real Estate Board.

Was similar logic used during the run up? Did CREB ever warn buyers that homes were too expensive during the boom? Did they anticipate this "sale"? Seems like it has been a "short term buying opportunity" for awhile now.

Fact is sales are low, inventory is high and the spring market is closing. Remember the talking heads were counting on spring for the rebound. Here is an interesting article from the one and only Calgary Herald:

Housing market set to catch spring fever

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Another factor could be that people get over the end of the year and have received their bonuses. This may be giving them some incentive to upgrade homes.

"The dominant factor is seasonality. People are getting out of hibernation mode and they want to get out and enjoy the spring weather and view show homes," he said.

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