Saturday, September 6, 2008

Perras: Ridiculous Statements

The thing that is astounding about the Edmonton Journal and Marc Perras is how they can be so certain in their fabricated stories when they have been so wrong in the past. I am referring to the Edmonton Journal article Home sales spike as prices sag.
With downturn ebbing, buyers flood market that's 'not going to get any better'
Bill Mah, The Edmonton Journal
Published: Thursday, September 04
The term ' buyers flood market' was not brought up by the industry insiders quoted in the article but created by the Edmonton Journal, demonstrating their own bias.

Marc Perras, president of the Realtors Association of Edmonton, said the figures confirm what he's experienced in his own real estate office.

"I've been run off my feet," Perras said. "July was ridiculously busy and August has been ridiculously busy, and when it shows in the numbers, it's not just me."

These are the Edmonton sales numbers for August for the last several years. 'Ridiculously busy' is a great exaggeration at best. I have my own bias here so I will just present the numbers and the sales chart again (from Edmonton Real Estate Blog).

August Sales
2003 1438
2004 1534
2005 1934
2006 2079
2007 1299
2008 1541

There were 9,612 residential properties in the inventory on Aug. 31, compared with 10,501 at the beginning of the month.

"The stats show buyers are confident with the Edmonton economy. It's a large selection to pick from right now, and I think they don't foresee a drastic dropping of prices, so they want to get into the marketplace and buy.

It is true that part of the inventory reduction is due to some recovery in the sales/listing ratio which is at 51%. What is not mentioned are listing that are removed or expired but did not sell. From the weekly update on the Edmonton Real Estate blog there were 692 delists last week alone. Another 'expert' chimes in:

"For buyers, it's not going to get any better than it is right now because of the supply, which is going to start to dwindle away," Goatcher said.
Sales will start to dwindle as well going into winter. Actually they already have, but you wouldn't have guessed it from this article. Honestly, I do not know what will happen in 2009 but I still get aggravated at the certainty which these statements are made.


Anonymous said...

i get a kick out of watching these fool make greater fools out of themseves, they are not very smart at all

Anonymous said...

hey bear..gotta keep pounding these liars for a couple more months..we are getting very close to the tipping point
the msm will have no choice but to become very negative very soon as thanks to blogs like yours they are losing all credibility


Radley77 said...

I have noticed lately that inventory has been dropping but the sales/new listings ratio is still pretty mediocre. This implies that a lot of the inventory is disappearing due to expiries instead of being actually sold. I think the main reason that inventory is dropping off is that "some" who listed unsuccessfully are tire-kickers. For example, investors are more likely to sell when then can do so at a high valuation. Now that house prices have slumped and rent has gone up or stayed flat, the incentive to sell has been reduced and speculators as wells as investors are now somewhat more reluctant to sell.

I believe that market sentiment is in a process of shifting from a "SELL" to a "HOLD" and will shift to a "BUY" at some time in the future.

I think the story of the expiries may explain that more people are shifting their view to a "HOLD" perspective.

Anyways, good article bearclaw, and keep up the good work!

BearClaw said...

Thanks squid!

I don't mind so much a bullish outlook for these guys just use reasonable arguments. Hopefully one day we will just buy and sell houses for the shelter they provide and will not play these games.


For rents I think marginal market rents have pretty much stabilized but actual rent for longer term tenants are still closing the gap. I agree as prices decrease more people will become bullish. It is a better to buy now than 1 year ago although it is debatable whether now is the bottom.

Anonymous said...

I hate realtors. I have a friend who became a realtor. Within a year I could no longer tolerate a conversation with him. They make a living by telling lies for personal gain.