Sunday, March 1, 2009

Don Campbell - From the Vault

Campbell said he expects Edmonton home prices generally to rise nine per cent in 2008 and 12 per cent in 2009. Homes that benefit from transportation improvements will outperform the market by an additional 10 to 20 per cent, he said. "When people look for a property to purchase, be it their primary residence or an investment property, they take into consideration affordability, commute times and commute costs," Campbell said.
November 14, 2007
Don Campbell
Transit effect a boon to homeowners


77yldiuqs said...

i thought it would be interesting to lok at some predictions from squidly from one year ago...

march 2008 squidly said: "we have close to 3,000 vacant empty homes that number to grow to 5,000 by summer
and listings to 22,000 by fall"

In actuality there were only 2800 vacant homes in july and only 8162 listings in october.

squidly was off by 44% on the vacant homes and off by 170% on the listings

Carioca Canuck said...


Pull up Don Campbell's other predictions and make a comparison....the guy sounds like David Lereah from NAR.

squidly77 said...


are you counting empty new condos and empty new sfh
how about the 2,000 on we-list

how about all the cheap houses and condos kept off of the mls
bearclaw had a post up from that real estate magazine that had about 1,000 condos that were intentionally held off of the mls

add up em all up..

sabb said...

Odd I can only find 6 edmonton homes on we-list, maybe I'm doing something wrong.

77yldiuqs said...

March 17, 2008 squidly said: "interest rates will ratchet up in a big way starting in sept

remember you read it here first"

in actuality mortgage rates are lower than they were last year

squidly77 said...


have patience as they will come
low interest rates is the last deperate attempt by the US government at saving its 6 trillion dollar housing crash and free up lending
and its now failing badly
canada a follower not a leader
in fact when rates shoot up and they will it will be the final shoe to drop on housing markets world wide

keep your eye on this chart as it is an indicater of what lies ahead

77yldiuqs said...

squidly said..."add em all up"

8162 + 2000 + 1000 = 11,162.

okay, you were only off by 124%

squidly said "how about all the cheap houses and condos kept off of the mls"

how about all the homes that shouldn't be listed? that people aren't serious about selling? you know it yourself becaus e you often say they are all overporiced shoeboxes. obviously the owners have no intention of selling. how about all those? there must be at least 4000 of them. that brings our inventory down to very low levels. if we take them into account, your off by 300%.

nice try on the interest rates(they went down again!)

BAD said...

Former Chretien-era junior finance minister Doug Peters, an economist, said there are no precedents for today's situation - not even the 1929 financial crisis that touched off the Great Depression.

"We've never had a world financial collapse as we've seen with all the regulation and all the back-stops we have in deposit insurance today, so we're really not sure how we're going to get out of this one," Peters said.

"(On the other hand), we've never had zero central bank interest rates either, so we don't know how the models will work."

Short, deep recession? Canada should be so lucky: economists

Ah, but the Alberta R/E is the safe haven, eh? Wanna bet a house?

Carioca Canuck said...

Thanks Bearclaw......

We should all write him an e-mail at REIN and tell him we bought houses in Edmonton in 2008 based on his comments and that we are now looking for our cheque with 20% attached.

LOL !!!!

BAD said...

Calgary story.

Mar 6, 2008:
"It appears as though things are picking up, as we move into the final month of the first quarter. I don't anticipate we'll see the blistering market that we experienced in the early parts of 2006 and 2007, but I do anticipate stability in this now corrected market," remarked CREB® president Ed Jensen.

February MLS® sales pick up momentum

After a year home prices are about $50,000 lower.

Mar 5, 2009:
“Undoubtedly the global economic downturn has battered consumer confidence. But there are promising signs we are moving towards a more balanced and stable market,” said Calgary Real Estate Board President, Bonnie Wegerich.

“Sales are making some modest gains this month, prices are stabilizing and our inventory absorption rate is improving,” added Wegerich.

Market restoring balance

Wanna bet a house on where the prices will be in a year? After all it is a stable and balanced market, eh?

BearClaw said...

Thanks bad,

That was a classic from last year "but I do anticipate stability in this now corrected market".