Showing posts with label Calgary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Calgary. Show all posts
Friday, July 8, 2011
Saturday, June 4, 2011
Monday, April 4, 2011
Calagry Stats for March 2011
Bob Truman updated the Old Criteria stats for March 2011. With this I have once again update the trends new listings and sales adding inventory and price charts as well this month. Seasonally adjusted sales and new listings as well as benchmarks are explained here.
Sales are down year over year but are still above the pace of the financial crisis (shown in red). There are two ways to interpret this YOY drop.
1) In terms of sales the market was doing reasonably well last March and it was only in June and July where they deteriorated. So if we maintain this same rate seasonally adjusted we can expect an increase in yearly sales shortly.
2) Now that there are fewer available buyers due to tighter mortgage rules the rate of sales should decrease faster than normal, resulting in continued year over year sales declines.
April will be a relatively slow month due to a sales vacuum formed by the recent mortgage rule changes. However I believe this will only have a short term impact and sales would then recover. My guess would be somewhere above last year's rate but below that of 2nd half of 2009, shown by the green line.
Listings are following closely the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009, shown in green. The low level of new listings is providing some support to the overall market which would be faring worse otherwise due to the low level of sales.
Inventory is about the same as this time last year, with only 0.6% fewer properties on the market. What is notable however is the difference in the rate of change between the first few months of this year compared to last.
Dec 2009: 5017
Mar 2010: 8524
% increase: 70%
Dec 2010: 6056
Mar 2011: 8477
% increase: 40%
Median prices are down 3.5% from last March.
Sales to new listing ratio is hovering around 50% from low sales and new listings.
Update: The Edmonton Journal ran an article on Don Campbell pumping another boom: “I’ve studied this for 19 years and I have not seen this strong of a perfect storm before.” See previous posts: part 1 and part 2.
Sales are down year over year but are still above the pace of the financial crisis (shown in red). There are two ways to interpret this YOY drop.
1) In terms of sales the market was doing reasonably well last March and it was only in June and July where they deteriorated. So if we maintain this same rate seasonally adjusted we can expect an increase in yearly sales shortly.
2) Now that there are fewer available buyers due to tighter mortgage rules the rate of sales should decrease faster than normal, resulting in continued year over year sales declines.
April will be a relatively slow month due to a sales vacuum formed by the recent mortgage rule changes. However I believe this will only have a short term impact and sales would then recover. My guess would be somewhere above last year's rate but below that of 2nd half of 2009, shown by the green line.
Listings are following closely the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009, shown in green. The low level of new listings is providing some support to the overall market which would be faring worse otherwise due to the low level of sales.
Inventory is about the same as this time last year, with only 0.6% fewer properties on the market. What is notable however is the difference in the rate of change between the first few months of this year compared to last.
Dec 2009: 5017
Mar 2010: 8524
% increase: 70%
Dec 2010: 6056
Mar 2011: 8477
% increase: 40%
Median prices are down 3.5% from last March.
Sales to new listing ratio is hovering around 50% from low sales and new listings.
Update: The Edmonton Journal ran an article on Don Campbell pumping another boom: “I’ve studied this for 19 years and I have not seen this strong of a perfect storm before.” See previous posts: part 1 and part 2.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Calgary Stats November 2010
Sales were little changed in November compared to the previous month where normally a drop would be expected.
After a spike earlier this year new listings have more closely tracked the rate equivalent to the 2nd half of 2009.
See the sales surge? Looking at a seasonally adjusted chart it's more like a modest bounce from depressed levels. Not a distressed market but not quite a robust one either.
Seasonally adjusted new listings have been holding roughly the same level as the 2nd half of 2009.
The sales to new listing ratio is stuck around 50%. This has improved from earlier this year due to lower listings and a higher seasonally adjusted sales rate.
The last chart shows sales, new listings and inventory over the last 5 years.
Raw data from Bob Truman's site
Explanation of benchmarks
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Market update for Calgary
Sales fell following a seasonal pattern in August and have been in "scorched earth" territory all summer. This is equivalent to the rate during the worst six months of the financial crisis. Last year sales were following the same pattern of slowing in the 2nd half but at a much healthier level shown by the green benchmark in the graph below.
Listings have returned to the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009.
Seasonally adjusted sales have remained steady after falling significantly from last year's levels.
Listings are down considerably and this could be from a reluctance by sellers to accept current market conditions. Another factor could be that the rush of new listings was an echo of some of the overhang from 2007/2008 and acted as a temporary boost. This may have eased but it will remain as inventory until absorbed.
Sales to new listing ratio improved due to slightly higher sales on a seasonally adjusted basis and fewer new listings. Nothing significant enough to turn around the current trend of falling prices.
Listings have returned to the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009.
Seasonally adjusted sales have remained steady after falling significantly from last year's levels.
Listings are down considerably and this could be from a reluctance by sellers to accept current market conditions. Another factor could be that the rush of new listings was an echo of some of the overhang from 2007/2008 and acted as a temporary boost. This may have eased but it will remain as inventory until absorbed.
Sales to new listing ratio improved due to slightly higher sales on a seasonally adjusted basis and fewer new listings. Nothing significant enough to turn around the current trend of falling prices.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Calgary February Stats - More Listings
Bob Truman posted Old Criteria stats for February which means it's time to crunch some numbers.
Sales increased at a rate faster than previous years moving slightly farther away from the "scorched earth" benchmark. Sales are fairly weak, but not nearly as bad as they were during the financial crisis.
Listings are more interesting now moving above the benchmark representing the last half of 2009.
Seasonally adjusted the increase in new listings was more significant than that of sales resulting in a sales/listings ratio of 45% down from 51% last month. (unadjusted the ratio is 47%). A ratio under 50% indicates a market with falling prices.
This chart shows cyclical pattern of sales and listing increasing each spring. So far this year sales have lagged, especially when compared to boom years.
The chart of seasonally adjusted sales and listings also highlight this trend.
Sales increased at a rate faster than previous years moving slightly farther away from the "scorched earth" benchmark. Sales are fairly weak, but not nearly as bad as they were during the financial crisis.
Listings are more interesting now moving above the benchmark representing the last half of 2009.
Seasonally adjusted the increase in new listings was more significant than that of sales resulting in a sales/listings ratio of 45% down from 51% last month. (unadjusted the ratio is 47%). A ratio under 50% indicates a market with falling prices.
This chart shows cyclical pattern of sales and listing increasing each spring. So far this year sales have lagged, especially when compared to boom years.
The chart of seasonally adjusted sales and listings also highlight this trend.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Sales to Listing Ratios
The last charts of the series show the seasonally adjusted sales/listing ratio for Edmonton and Calgary. The sales to new listing ratio is a good gauge on how strong the market is and is closely correlated with price changes. A sale/list ratio close to 50% indicates a balanced market with stable prices. A ratio above 50% leads to a stronger market with increasing prices and below 50% will result in price decreases. Radley showed this correlation in Calgary in this post.
The reason for the seasonal adjustment is theratio has yearly patterns which makes it more difficult to interpret on a month to month basis. For example the historical non-adjusted chart for Edmonton is shown below. I marked points to show each December has a spike followed by a decline in January.
This drop is more due to seasonal patterns as opposed to the market deteriorating at the beginning of each year which is why the adjusted chart is more representitive of market trends. See the market downturn with the ratio dropping below 50% in June 2007 and then started recovery in 2009. The time periods below 50% are fairly closely correlated with when we experienced a declining market.
Calgary's charts is similar to Edmonton's except the decline after 2007 was more gradual.
It appears the ratio has recently peaked in both cities. It is important to note that the sale/list ratio is an indicator of where the market is at right now and potentially which way prices could go in the very near future. They are not intended to predict long term trends.
The reason for the seasonal adjustment is theratio has yearly patterns which makes it more difficult to interpret on a month to month basis. For example the historical non-adjusted chart for Edmonton is shown below. I marked points to show each December has a spike followed by a decline in January.
This drop is more due to seasonal patterns as opposed to the market deteriorating at the beginning of each year which is why the adjusted chart is more representitive of market trends. See the market downturn with the ratio dropping below 50% in June 2007 and then started recovery in 2009. The time periods below 50% are fairly closely correlated with when we experienced a declining market.
Calgary's charts is similar to Edmonton's except the decline after 2007 was more gradual.
It appears the ratio has recently peaked in both cities. It is important to note that the sale/list ratio is an indicator of where the market is at right now and potentially which way prices could go in the very near future. They are not intended to predict long term trends.
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