Calagry Stats for March 2011

Bob Truman updated the Old Criteria stats for March 2011. With this I have once again update the trends new listings and sales adding inventory and price charts as well this month. Seasonally adjusted sales and new listings as well as benchmarks are explained here.


Sales are down year over year but are still above the pace of the financial crisis (shown in red). There are two ways to interpret this YOY drop.

1) In terms of sales the market was doing reasonably well last March and it was only in June and July where they deteriorated. So if we maintain this same rate seasonally adjusted we can expect an increase in yearly sales shortly.

2) Now that there are fewer available buyers due to tighter mortgage rules the rate of sales should decrease faster than normal, resulting in continued year over year sales declines.

April will be a relatively slow month due to a sales vacuum formed by the recent mortgage rule changes. However I believe this will only have a short term impact and sales would then recover. My guess would be somewhere above last year's rate but below that of 2nd half of 2009, shown by the green line.


Listings are following closely the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009, shown in green. The low level of new listings is providing some support to the overall market which would be faring worse otherwise due to the low level of sales.


Inventory is about the same as this time last year, with only 0.6% fewer properties on the market. What is notable however is the difference in the rate of change between the first few months of this year compared to last.

Dec 2009: 5017
Mar 2010: 8524
% increase: 70%

Dec 2010: 6056
Mar 2011: 8477
% increase: 40%


Median prices are down 3.5% from last March.



Sales to new listing ratio is hovering around 50% from low sales and new listings.

Update: The Edmonton Journal ran an article on Don Campbell pumping another boom: “I’ve studied this for 19 years and I have not seen this strong of a perfect storm before.” See previous posts: part 1 and part 2.

Calgary Stats Feb 2011

After a slow start in January sales have picked up in February. Even with this increase they are still below the pace set in the 2nd half of 2009 shown in green in the chart below. It will be interesting to see how much the new mortgage rules will slow sales after March 17. I believe the impact of this change has been overstated because it is a marginal reduction of the size of a mortgage allowed and only effects those who were going to their affordability limit with the maximum amortization. (It is a positive change long term and if you are a buyer rushing to get a 35 year am - don't do it. Get a shorter amortization later when you can afford it.)


New listing have ramped up at the start of 2011. This stat will be important to watch over the next few months. Will we have a higher than normal surge this spring similar to last year?


Seasonally adjusted sales have remain higher compared to late last spring but nowhere near the pace of the boom of 2006-2007.



Seasonally adjusted new listings have increased consistently since reaching a low in October 2010.



So far in 2011 the sales to new listings ration has dropped below 50% due to new listings rising more than sales on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Since December the median price (Old Criteria) has increased from $342,500 to $357,250. I believe that sales mix and seasonal factors contribute to this so to give further insight I hope to add seasonally adjusted price charts shortly. The same goes for total inventory as well which has increased from 6,056 to 7,517.

Calgary Stats December 2010

Sales decreased last month but not as much as expected.


New Listings fell dramatically as expected this time of the year.


On a seasonally adjusted basis sales have partially recovered when compared to the dismal pace set this spring.

Fewer new listings are coming onto the market now when compared to the rate earlier this year. This will be a key indicator to watch going into next year as the unknown variable is how many will be re-listed and how motivated they are to sell.



The sales to new listing ratio improved on a seasonally adjusted basis as sales held up better than expected.


The last chart shows sales, new listings and inventory over the last 5 years.

Raw data from Bob Truman's site
Explanation of benchmarks

Happy New Year!

Calgary Market Update

"Old Criteria" numbers have been posted by Bob Truman today for Calgary.


Sales fell as expected this month. They have maintained a level slightly above scorched earth after rebounding this summer. Sales are still pretty bad, but they could be (and have been) worse.



Listings dropped slightly faster than what would be expected and are now below the seasonally adjusted constant rate of the 2nd half of 2009.


Seasonally adjusted sales are at fairly low levels but have broke through the six month moving average on the upside. I am not a fan of technical indicators so all this tells me is that so far the sales slowdown has been slightly less brutal than during the worst six months of the financial crisis.



New listings are down considerably after spiking earlier this year.



The seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio broke 50% in October. While a 50% indicator has been shown to be the transition point between falling and rising prices I should add a few points of caution to this.

1. Prices have seemed to lag this indicator somewhat with rising prices earlier this year even with a sub 50% ratio. So some amount of price declines are probably still baked in.

2. This improvement has been more due to the drop of new listings as sales have remained fairly weak. Some are skeptical of using new listings as a market indicator. The main criticism (I think) is that the number includes original listings and re-listings so its hard to judge how much new supply is added. I think if someone re-lists it measures difficulty and/or motivation to sell and an original listing measures new supply. Either way the higher the number the weaker the market will be assuming a constant sales rate.

3. Even if the ratio was an accurate gauge of where prices were will go this is one month of 50%. So unless there is further improvement this only indicates potential stability.



And finally a look at sales, new listings and inventory over the years.

Calgary Market Update

For the last couple of months sales have been fairly steady. This has resulted in a shift away from the "scorched earth" benchmark as sales are expected to fall this time of year.


New listings are tracking closer to the rate of the 2nd half of 2009 after spiking dramatically earlier this year.

Seasonally adjusted home sales bottomed in June and have increased since then. Even with this increase sales are low by historical standards.
Seasonally adjusted new listings remain well below the rush of earlier this year or in 2007/2008 as people are more reluctant to sell in a tough market.


The seasonally adjusted sales to new listings ratio increased again last month but remains slightly below 50%.


Although new listings have declined inventory is moving more slowly. The level of inventory combined with still historically low sales means that prices must be competitive to sell.

Market update for Calgary

Sales fell following a seasonal pattern in August and have been in "scorched earth" territory all summer. This is equivalent to the rate during the worst six months of the financial crisis. Last year sales were following the same pattern of slowing in the 2nd half but at a much healthier level shown by the green benchmark in the graph below.



Listings have returned to the same rate as the 2nd half of 2009. Seasonally adjusted sales have remained steady after falling significantly from last year's levels.


Listings are down considerably and this could be from a reluctance by sellers to accept current market conditions. Another factor could be that the rush of new listings was an echo of some of the overhang from 2007/2008 and acted as a temporary boost. This may have eased but it will remain as inventory until absorbed.

Sales to new listing ratio improved due to slightly higher sales on a seasonally adjusted basis and fewer new listings. Nothing significant enough to turn around the current trend of falling prices.

Calgary Stats: Sales Remain at "Scorched Earth", Listings Fall

While the market has been struggling all year it is now reflected in mainstream market sentiment. This is due to price drops showing up, terrible year over year sales comparisons and high inventory.



Sales fell as expected in July and remain close to the "Scorched Earth" benchmark. A rate similar to the worst six months of the financial crisis.



Listings fell dramatically in July and are now down 8% YOY.


The sales to new listings ratio recovered somewhat with the large drop in new listings. Unless sales rate improves the reduced number of new listings will only slow down the pace of price decreases as the ratio remains below 50%.

Raw data from Bob Truman's Old Criteria page.
Initial explanation of seasonally adjusted data and benchmarks and seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio.

Calgary Real Estate Statistics: June 2010

Sales are at "scorched earth" levels which is the same rate as during the worst six months of the financial crisis.

Listings are fairly high but down from the rate of March and April.



Seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio is 35%. A ratio of below 50% typically results in falling prices.


Raw data from Bob Truman's Old Criteria page.
Initial explanation of seasonally adjusted data and benchmarks and seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio.

Calgary Statistics May 2010

Listings dropped compared to April but still remain at elevated levels.

Home sales should peak in late spring but that is not the case this year. Instead, they peaked in March and have declined for two consecutive months.


The gap between sales and listings is similar to 2008, when prices were trending down.


Seasonally adjusted listings declined sharply but remain high.



Seasonally adjusted sales have been deteriorating since the end of 2009.

The seasonally adjusted sales to new listings ratio remained unchanged at 42%. The gray line is a rate of 50%, and a drop below this has typically meant falling prices. Since prices measures tend to rise in spring and drop in the fall, I would guess fairly quick declines to show up in the monthly stats and in newspaper headlines this summer.

Raw data from Bob Truman's Old Criteria page.
Initial explanation of seasonally adjusted data and benchmarks and seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio.