The past two years residential construction in Edmonton has been in decline as the result of some overbuilding during the boom and from weaker demand since then. The glut of housing under construction has been mostly absorbed and going forward will contribute less to overall supply. Single family starts slowed rapidly after the market peak in the spring of 2007 and since then the amount under construction has fallen substantially. Single family houses under construction have decreased from the peak of 6528 in August 2007 to 1764 in April 2009. This has bounced back recently to 2216 in September 2009 as starts have picked up again.
The chart below shows the amount under construction from all types of residential housing. While single family homes have bottomed, apartment condos (shown in orange) continue to decline. I added inventory which has been completed but not absorbed in gray. This does not make up a terribly significant portion, but it is interesting to note that SFH spec homes have been cleared while condos have accumulated.
In general the number of completions should be roughly in line with the number of starts only delayed. We have seen completions exceed starts for quite some time resulting in a decrease in the amount under construction. Right now the 12 month moving average for starts for all residential is 403 while still 795 for completions.
I expect completions to decline going forward contributing less to overall supply.