Sunday, December 28, 2008

Truman - From the Archives

This is a post from Truman's blog dated June 21, 2007. It has been removed from his blog along with most other old posts but it remains in the web archives. Since then prices for SFH fell 80K for the average and the median dropped by almost 60K. Data from Mike's stats using numbers from December 1-27.
What were they saying last year??

It's interesting to look back one year, and see almost the same comments we're hearing today. These are all comments from the Calgarian Contrarian blog from 2006:

Jul 5: Buyers in Calgary are stupid. (Well, if you were one of those "stupid" buyers, you would have an extra $74,050 in your jeans today)

Jul 11: TD is predicting that oil will fall to $45/bbl by mid 2007 (it's $69 today)

Jul 11: When to sell? I have a feeling June 2006 may have been the top (As it turns out, June 2006 is now 20% below current levels)

Jul 16: Calgary is going to crash, just like the US markets. Maybe worse. (You didn't give us a date)

Aug 2: I think people are pretty dumb and will continue to buy well past the point where supply is greater than demand

Aug 20: Around my office, people from admin staff to engineers talk about buying a house right now as very stupid (What's your prediction today? We'll do the opposite)

Aug 22: This chart also shows the greed in this city and I'll be one happy person when the wheels come of this RE wagon. It's crazy what some of these properties are selling for. I'm sure we'll see a 30-40% price correction in Calgary within the next 12-18 months. (It's still possible if prices drop $210,000 on the average home)

Sep 13: A boom in Saskatoon? I'd be shocked. I wasn't aware of any major oil and gas developments near there and oil companies haven't liked offices in Sask ever since the NDP scared them away in the 70s. Has there been any large population growth there in the past few years? (Last week 81% of Saskatoon homes sold above the asking price)

Oct 8: I think we could be in for a hard landing.

Oct 31: it is typical for condos to be overbuilt the most during the boom and experience the largest correction in price during the downturn that invariably follows. (Condo prices are up 23%)

Nov 3: President of CREB states: "buyers may lose out by waiting until spring."
This comment to me sounds like the "just wait until the spring rally" that the US National Association of Realtors was putting out last year at this time. Many US markets peaked in the summer of 2005 and then the fall is when sales started to drop and inventories started to build. At that time, every pundit was saying it was simply a lull before the "spring rally". Well, the spring rally never came.
Is Calgary different? Are there enough new buyers to overtake new supply and continue to push up prices from their current levels? (We know the answer is a resounding "YES" and Calgary is "Different")

Nov 3: the ponzi scam seems to be over in edm too (Edmonton prices have risen more than Calgary's this year)

Nov 3: I'd love to know what entry point all of the people who are waiting for prices to fall have chosen. 10% decline? 20%? 40%? Or, were they afraid to buy three years ago, really afraid in the summer of 2005, and terrified now? Do they think they are bright enough to call the market bottom? (November)

Nov 7: can you not see that inventories are 110% higher than nov 2005 and will probably be 230% higher in dec compared to dec 2005 (Dec 2006 inventory was 78% higher)

My blog was not in operation until November, but it's interesting to go back and look at the predictions. The most accurate was from our beloved Al Bundy:

"I think we're in for another crazy time in real estate in Calgary starting Jan. 2. I'm sticking to my guns here, and predict a further price hike in Calgary of 15-20% in 2007. Call me a nut case if you want to, but that's what I see. That's what the math tells me."

Al, you were dead-on. As it turns out, someone flipped the switch on Jan 2 and it indeed did go crazy again.

Posted: Thursday, June 21, 2007 9:43 AM by Bob Truman

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