Saturday, January 8, 2011

Edmonton Market Stats December 2010

Once again the updated sales, listing and seasonally adjusted charts for Edmonton.

Sales remain above the dismal pace of the financial crisis but below the more robust pace set during the 2nd half of 2009.

Listings are following the rate set during the 2nd hald of 2009.

On a seasonally adjusted basis home sales have recovered somewhat from earlier this year.

The spike of listings which contributed to the year over year increase in inventory has settled down.

The seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio has increased due to more sales and reduced listings. The rate currently stands at 57%. I would be cautious reading too much into this due to the lower volume in the winter months. However, if this ratio stays at this level into the spring market we may see YOY inventory drops and prices stabilizing. The question is how big of a listings rush will there be this spring?

The last chart shows sales, new listings and inventory over the years.

The median price of single family homes has moved down considerably since spring. Down to $336,500 from $370,000 in May, or almost 10%. These price declines are a combination of real market deterioration and seasonality as I mentioned in June.
The seasonally adjust sales to listing ratio is 42% and has been flat for three months. Expect price drops soon.

I think that some of the price measures are elevated right now due to seasonality and high level of luxury sales (see Edmonton Real Estate Blog for price stats). This works both ways as it shows prices have been rising all year (when they haven't) and will exaggerate the drops during the second half.
It comes as no surprise that the EREB was way too optimistic on their revised prediction of 19,000 sales half way through the year. I was also optimistic guessing 16,576 when the preliminary total right now stands at 16,241.

1 comment:

Sara said...

Nice job - like your sales chart with the benchmarks!