Thursday, June 3, 2010

Edmonton Statistics May 2010

The REALTORS Association of Edmonton released statistics for May and describe the market as "relaxed".

Listings are down from last month but remain at elevated levels. It appears they have hit a top early this year below the benchmark level of "stampede", equivalent to the flood of listings experienced in 2007.

Sales are now at the "scorched earth" benchmark which is the same rate seasonally adjusted during the worst six months of the financial crisis. Although I expected sales to be slow, I am surprised how bad they really were in May. The story is shifting from a flood of listings to the dismal sales pace.

The seasonally adjust sales to listing ratio is 42% and has been flat for three months. Expect price drops soon.

I think that some of the price measures are elevated right now due to seasonality and high level of luxury sales (see Edmonton Real Estate Blog for price stats). This works both ways as it shows prices have been rising all year (when they haven't) and will exaggerate the drops during the second half. Too bad Edmonton doesn't have a sales pair measure like Calgary does in the Teranet index.

Initial explanation of seasonally adjusted data and benchmarks and seasonally adjusted sales to new listing ratio.

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