Sunday, January 18, 2009

Quick post

So much for blogging break...

A quick comment on the Calgary Herald article "Return to normal predicted for market"

Yet another of article of baseless reassurances.

"The start of 2009 is poised to signify the end of the downward movement in Calgary's real estate market," says Ted Zaharko, broker/owner of Royal LePage Foothills Real Estate Service. "Over the past few years, the city experienced explosive growth followed by a significant correction period-- but a turnaround to normal market conditions is imminent."
No claim substantiated. No reflection why the same idea brought up in the past was proven wrong by the market. Take a look at this article from the same author, Realtor and paper from January of 2008: "Return to 'normal' predicted for 2008" . See previous post

After more sweet nothings from another industry insider the Herald prints:

There is a growing feeling within the industry that the low has been reached, particularly with the way the Calgary economy is operating.

This is total ignorance of the past by the Calgary Herald. This implies that at one point the industry was less sure of a bottom and falsely gives them credibility where none is deserved. The industry continues to feel a low has been reached, as it has since the downturn began.

6 comments:

Socius said...

I know this is not Alberta-related but it is somewhat relevant. It's only a matter of time before these happen in the Calgary market. There are too many condo towers nearing completion and not enough people to absorb them at the current prices.
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=1181254

Carioca Canuck said...

At least Ted Zaharko is consistent.....LOL !!!

May I be the first to make a prediction too ?.....

"The downward trend in RE prices is expected to end in 2010 and prices will moderate thereafter".......

millipede said...

Its obvious BS. Surely nobody actually believes it.

Radley77 said...

CREB set to launch annual indoctrination

That would rock if you could crash that party, and vlog the footage on your website. The speakers are so fru fru. I wonder if they canned Ed Jensen because sales slowed down so much last year? I have visions of REALTORS gossiping that the slowdown is due to Ed Jensen's combover.

Seriously though, CREB has a big credibility gap. The marketplace needs more substantive information than "we believe the market is affordable" or that we "expect sales to improve."

From the incumbant president's foreword, it seems like the new refreshed strategy is to rebuild trust through community activism. While I think this is worthwhile, I think that they also need to address the issue of poor marketplace information. If the marketplace has better information about the potential risks and rewards, I think it would benefit all market participants.

squidly77 said...

thought i would just post this here
so as to have it for reference

Bob Truman said:
The Calgary Real Estate Board in its annual forecast released today says the average MLS sale price for a single-family home in the city will drop by 2 per cent this year while for condos it will decrease by 5 per cent.

The board also said single-family listings will remain the same as in 2008, but sales will increase by 10 per cent. In the condo market, CREB forecasts listings to increase by 5 per cent in 2009, but sales to fall by five per cent.

The average MLS sale price is expected to fall to $451,120 for the entire year of sales in 2009 compared with $460,327 in 2008. The average sale price for a condo is expected to drop to $287,300 compared with $302,408 the previous year. Read more in the Calgary Herald


# January 21, 2009 12:18 PM

arejay said...

thought i would just post this here
so as to have it for reference

Squidly77 said on jan 2, 2008...

but the average calgary house will return to the long term median
it has to
so that would be about $180,000
of course it will over shoot down
and be available for about $140,000