Thursday, January 1, 2009

Bob Truman - Changing Criteria

This will be a follow-up of a previous post regarding Bob Truman's prediction from January 30, 2008 and how it has been changed and promoted throughout the year.
Jan 30
It speaks to the amazing strength of the Calgary economy that in spite of decreased sales and increased inventory, the price is remaining stable, or even rising slightly. If prices stay where they are now, and I fully expect them to, within a +/- 5% range, the buyers will appear. People have been waiting to see what would happen in January and now they know. My phone is busy, and many other realtors I've talked with, report plenty of interest. Sales will be down considerably this year compared to the frenzied activity of 2006 and 2007, but it seems to be a non-issue. When you compare this year's sales to the years when we had a normal balanced market, we're right on the average.

Initially the prediction was that prices would remain within the range without using any specific measure. From Mike's stats all price measures fell outside the range of stability to the downside by December.

SFH January December %Change
Average $455,297 $417,397 -8.3%
Median $410,000 $380,000 -7.3%
$/SF $302 $272 -10.0%

Condo January December %Change
Average $311,232 $274,919 -11.7%
Median $290,000 $254,000 -12.4%
$/SF $313 $272 -13.1%

On June 4th he returned to the original prediction focusing on the median price for single family homes. The criteria remained that the price would stay between a +/-5% range.
Posted: June 4, 2008
On Jan 31, 2008 I predicted the median price would fluctuate between $389,500 and $430,500 for the remainder of the year. Do you think this is accurate?(To May 31, the 30-day median price has risen as high as $428,000 and has fallen as low as $410,000. The median price on May 31 was $419,000)

Results as of Jun 11:

Yes. It is accurate 55%
No. Median will rise higher than $430,500 11%
No. Median will drop lower than $389,500 33%

On October 30th the wording was changed to rise and fall by the boundaries of his earlier prediction for a particular measure. Not surprisingly, at this time the median was very close to the lower limit.
October 30th
From the previous topic a reader has posed this probing question. He said "Why would you, a realtor that works at commission, not an economist, not a market analyst but bob Truman the salesman knows better than all the pros?"

After predicting the prices with uncanny accuracy in 2007, it would be a feat of unimaginable insight and clairvoyance to do it two years in a row, in these turbulent markets, so let's see how this year's prediction turned out:

In January 2008, I predicted the 30-day median price would rise as high as $430,500 and fall as low as $389,500 this year. So far, the price has been as high as $428,000(Feb), and the low is $390,000(today).

After reflecting back on the year he then changed how he would define if the prediction was accurate. In January it was for stable prices within a +/-5% range. In June it was for a particular statistic but still within the range. By the end of October it was for a chosen stat to rise and fall by certain amounts. Note that he did not make an actual dollar figure prediction instead defined a range of stability, and even after changing criteria throughout the year it did not end up being accurate.
Jan 1
Now that 2008 is in the books, let's look back at the Predictions. Considering the volatile year we've just been through, who would have ever been able to forecast the final outcome with any degree of accuracy? It turns out that was very accurate. In fact, no one on the public record made a more accurate prediction, but I congratulate all who had the courage to make an actual dollar figure prediction in such a tumultuous year.


Bob T.he Top Realtard In Calgary said...
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Carioca Canuck said...

Stevie Wonder could predict a 10% +/- swing in RE values without even reading our blogs or CREB data........heh.

Don't you just love to watch grade 6 realtor hubris in action ?

squiddli77 said...
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BearClaw said...

Another Truman quote

Jan 30
Wear your sunglasses today when you look at the daily stats on Mike's site at You'll be looking at four bright and shining green arrows. Those each represent the major price indicators of Calgary real estate. For the month of January, average and median price is up for both single family homes and condos.

Bob T.he Top Realtard In Calgary said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
zatictron said...

On Dec 27, 2008 squidly said

"what do you think that the chances are of calgary sfh not having a $200,000 yearly loss in 2009
re-setting in 12 months to about $225,000
i think the chances are good

Today squidly said

"i can see a 20% decline this year"($334,000)

So, changing predictions as we go along, eh? Not by a little bit, either. You go big. $109,000 increase after 2 months. Wow. What happened to make such a big change in your prediction?

Two years ago you predicted average house price of $160,000 by 2008.