Back in January he made a predictions that prices would stay within +/-5% and a statement on the strength of the Calgary real estate market. He has followed up a few times on this throughout the year.
It speaks to the amazing strength of the Calgary economy that in spite of decreased sales and increased inventory, the price is remaining stable, or even rising slightly. If prices stay where they are now, and I fully expect them to, within a +/- 5% range, the buyers will appear. People have been waiting to see what would happen in January and now they know. My phone is busy, and many other realtors I've talked with, report plenty of interest. Sales will be down considerably this year compared to the frenzied activity of 2006 and 2007, but it seems to be a non-issue. When you compare this year's sales to the years when we had a normal balanced market, we're right on the average.
November numbers are now available from Mike Fotiou. The median fell below $389,500 or 5%. I also compared the other price measures to January and all except one fall outside the 5% range predicted.
Posted: June 4, 2008
On Jan 31, 2008 I predicted the median price would fluctuate between $389,500 and $430,500 for the remainder of the year. Do you think this is accurate?(To May 31, the 30-day median price has risen as high as $428,000 and has fallen as low as $410,000. The median price on May 31 was $419,000)
From the previous topic a reader has posed this probing question. He said "Why would you, a realtor that works at commission, not an economist, not a market analyst but bob Truman the salesman knows better than all the pros?"
After predicting the prices with uncanny accuracy in 2007, it would be a feat of unimaginable insight and clairvoyance to do it two years in a row, in these turbulent markets, so let's see how this year's prediction turned out:
In January 2008, I predicted the 30-day median price would rise as high as $430,500 and fall as low as $389,500 this year. So far, the price has been as high as $428,000(Feb), and the low is $390,000(today).
In the Calgary Herald yesterday, it said "Much attention, understandably so, is being paid to economic experts and what they have to say..." It goes on to say, "They get it right only 40 per cent of the time."
Now to answer your question of why I know better than the pros. I don't really consider it a part of my job description to predict the future. I take no credit for an accurate and lucky guess, but I do operate at a different level of consciousness than they do. They are entrenched in the structures of existing institutions which imprison the mind, and they continue to perpetuate the dysfunction in their work.
Failed predictions are not hard come by but the gloating by Truman in October makes this post-worthy.
...Anyway i'm in good spirits despite all the political and economic turmoil so one that note here is Herbie Hancock and "rockit" from 1985. Enjoy.