Thursday, November 29, 2007

Pent-up supply

It seems the recent "softening" of the Edmonton real estate market has been framed as a short term event as a result of hesitant buyers. This article in the Edmonton Sun quotes three REALTORS: Housing to heat up: Realtors

ReMax realtor Simon D. Hunt
"I don't think we'll continue to see much of a dip because there's still a lot of demand,"
"Peoples' perception is that the market has crashed, but that is skewed."

ReMax realtor Len T. Wong
"There's no urgency out there to buy at this time of year," he said.
"But the spring markets will be a lot more stable."

Jon Hall of the Edmonton Real Estate Board
"There's just been so much steam in (the house market) that the top is loose and the steam is getting out a bit,"

However, their are also people waiting for the spring "bounce" to relist. And consider the quote from John hall in this article

He noted that one builder has built 100 basements, but has now capped them waiting for things to improve.
"He's just going to wait for the market to turn," said Hall

To me this does not make sense especially considering that the recent downturn is small compared to the boom as pointed out in the article:

Hall said prices had dropped 6.5 per cent over the last five months after a 74 per cent hike over the previous 17 months.

So after a combined 60-70% increase is it reasonable to hold out for more? Are sellers reasonable to wait until spring to sell after such an incredible long term run-up? Is the spring going to be a market of pent-up demand or pent-up supply?


Anonymous said...

you need to get the blog address out there
well written..and people would be interested..i am sure that the bubble would link you
deception in realestate transactions is bigger then most think...squid

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