Back in January he made a predictions that prices would stay within +/-5% and a statement on the strength of the Calgary real estate market. He has followed up a few times on this throughout the year.
Jan 30
It speaks to the amazing strength of the Calgary economy that in spite of decreased sales and increased inventory, the price is remaining stable, or even rising slightly. If prices stay where they are now, and I fully expect them to, within a +/- 5% range, the buyers will appear. People have been waiting to see what would happen in January and now they know. My phone is busy, and many other realtors I've talked with, report plenty of interest. Sales will be down considerably this year compared to the frenzied activity of 2006 and 2007, but it seems to be a non-issue. When you compare this year's sales to the years when we had a normal balanced market, we're right on the average.
November numbers are now available from Mike Fotiou. The median fell below $389,500 or 5%. I also compared the other price measures to January and all except one fall outside the 5% range predicted.
Posted: June 4, 2008
On Jan 31, 2008 I predicted the median price would fluctuate between $389,500 and $430,500 for the remainder of the year. Do you think this is accurate?(To May 31, the 30-day median price has risen as high as $428,000 and has fallen as low as $410,000. The median price on May 31 was $419,000)
October 30th
From the previous topic a reader has posed this probing question. He said "Why would you, a realtor that works at commission, not an economist, not a market analyst but bob Truman the salesman knows better than all the pros?"
After predicting the prices with uncanny accuracy in 2007, it would be a feat of unimaginable insight and clairvoyance to do it two years in a row, in these turbulent markets, so let's see how this year's prediction turned out:
In January 2008, I predicted the 30-day median price would rise as high as $430,500 and fall as low as $389,500 this year. So far, the price has been as high as $428,000(Feb), and the low is $390,000(today).
In the Calgary Herald yesterday, it said "Much attention, understandably so, is being paid to economic experts and what they have to say..." It goes on to say, "They get it right only 40 per cent of the time."
Now to answer your question of why I know better than the pros. I don't really consider it a part of my job description to predict the future. I take no credit for an accurate and lucky guess, but I do operate at a different level of consciousness than they do. They are entrenched in the structures of existing institutions which imprison the mind, and they continue to perpetuate the dysfunction in their work.
| SFH | January | Novemeber | %Change |
| Average | $455,297 | $435,471 | -4.4% |
| Median | $410,000 | $387,300 | -5.5% |
| $/SF | $302 | $281 | -7.0% |
| Condo | January | November | %Change |
| Average | $311,232 | $285,820 | -8.2% |
| Median | $290,000 | $251,800 | -13.2% |
| $/SF | $313 | $281 | -10.2% |
Failed predictions are not hard come by but the gloating by Truman in October makes this post-worthy.
...Anyway i'm in good spirits despite all the political and economic turmoil so one that note here is Herbie Hancock and "rockit" from 1985. Enjoy.
12 comments:
I'm a huge RE bear (thanks mostly to this blog, Garth and my own experience of selling a condo in July) but so far you have to hand it to Bob.
Median price wise, he is only off by less than 3K. Sales have fallen off a cliff but his prediction is still pretty decent.
hey bear lets not do yoy
make the truth known
todays price over the peak #505,000
price is more reflective
do to others as they would do to you
"I also compared the other price measures to January and all except one fall outside the 5% range predicted."
bearclaw, you changed the criteria. Bob Truman very clearly specified "Median prices." You're really scratchin' and stretchin' and contorting yourself.
What was your prediction, bearclaw? Have you seen a prediction that was more accurate than Bob's???
Cyrus,
Thanks for commenting. I guess I am less forgiving because of the frequent boasting and its easier to be close using a 10% range.
Squidly,
Prices have fallen further from peak but the prediction was made in January.
groovin (fanboy),
Well the median is out either way and sales have fallen significantly. Comparing to other numbers shows that it is part of a general price decline not a statistical fluke. There was no emphasis on median price originally as far as I can tell so no criteria change here.
"Well the median is out either way "
He's accurate on the median price within 1%. And no he didn't give a 10% range. He gave two very specific prices: A high and a low. What was your prediction again?
groovin (fanboy),
Im gonna dive right into parsing and semantics. Read the Jan 30th post.
"It speaks to the amazing strength of the Calgary economy that in spite of decreased sales and increased inventory, the price is remaining stable, or even rising slightly. If prices stay where they are now, and I fully expect them to, within a +/- 5% range, the buyers will appear."
Prices stay within a 10% range. No mention of SFH or median*. Got it?
One month ago the prediction was this:
"In January 2008, I predicted the 30-day median price would rise as high as $430,500 and fall as low as $389,500 this year. So far, the price has been as high as $428,000(Feb), and the low is $390,000(today)."
Note that after the fact the criteria was changed from within a range to predicting it would rise and fall those amounts, for the 30-day median for SFH.
Also you missed when I said this because you have selective reading:
"Failed predictions are not hard come by but the gloating by Truman in October makes this post-worthy."
Re-read the Oct 30th blog post. Regarding my predictions, you can go back and find them and when I say I am operating at a "higher level of conciousness". Unlike Truman, I have left all my posts here for all to see.
*The original January 30th quote was found from Calgary Real Estate Bubble Blog because Truman pulled down his older "what's new" posts.
Being off by 1% and you criticize?
I understand that it must be difficult to accept that a realtor made an accurate prediction when your friends at the bubble blog were off by 100% in some cases.
And what was your prediction?
Sidekick,
condo median down 13.2%
Sales down significantly
Buyers did not appear as predicted.
Read the original (Jan 30th) quote again if you need to.
All of my posts remain available on this blog. Here is one example:
_______________
Last November when the papers said pent-up demand I said pent-up supply. Inventory hit new highs.
What was your price prediction for 2008 again?
I thought so.
it's not really boasting if you walk the talk. Buyers and sellers would be interested in knowing who made accurate predictions because it would help determine who knows what they are talking about.
You are scared to make a prediction because you only want to criticize people in hindsight which of course is always 20/20.
Give us a price prediction one year in advance like Bob did.
You're like the person who doesn't vote, then criticizes the government you get.
When you do the calculation based on average price, Truman's prediction is even MORE accurate.
High price prediction: $478,062.
Actual: $479,564(May)...he was off by 3/10 of 1%.
Low price prediction: $432,532
Actual: $435,471(Nov)...he was off by 7/10 of 1%
Now a prediction from your friend:
squidly says house avg price will be $160,000 this year
Actual: $435,471. Only off by 172%
so far, you have to hand it to Bob.
bob truman is a tool..groovin your either bob truman or a wanna be realtor..if the latter grow up
if the prior..too late
people like me will rip you apart financially..and enjoy it..
From online poll
Posted: June 4, 2008
On Jan 31, 2008 I predicted the median price would fluctuate between $389,500 and $430,500 for the remainder of the year. Do you think this is accurate?(To May 31, the 30-day median price has risen as high as $428,000 and has fallen as low as $410,000. The median price on May 31 was $419,000)
Results as of Jun 11:
Yes. It is accurate 55%
No. Median will rise higher than $430,500 11%
No. Median will drop lower than $389,500 33%
I don't know when the +/-5% turned into focusing on the median for SFH - then to this price rising and falling by those amounts. But even using the criteria established much later the prediction is not accurate.
Take a look at this article from Feb 1.
House prices storm ahead
The latest monthly real estate data indicates Calgary's economy is "incredibly strong," said Bob Truman, with First Place Realty.
"To think that we have all this inventory and yet the prices are going up, it's amazing," he said. "I just think it speaks to the strength of this economy we're in . . . That's the main thing that hits me like a two by four on the head."
He also said a trend is developing just over the last week or two where the days on the market are really going down. In the past week it was only 44 days.
"It looks like it's the usual spring frenzy. Frenzy is too strong of a word. It's going to be more of a balanced market this year and we're starting now. Forty to 50 days is the usual time it takes to sell a house in a balanced market and that's what we've got right now."
Post a Comment