Saturday, February 23, 2008

Calgary Home Sales

This article in the Calgary Herald discusses the state of Calgary resale market.
The number of single-family resale homes changing hands in Calgary this month has climbed over the 1,200 mark -- pretty typical of this time of the year, say industry experts
However from Mikes Stats, there have been 934 SFH sales between Feb 1-22. The article appears to be discussing the same area as these stats as it mentioned inventory over 4700 while Mikes stats show 4794.

By the end of this month sales will most likely exceed 1200 (1231 at current rate) and it is technically true that passing 1200 is 'typical'. However in previous years it was typical to pass much higher numbers as well, such as 1800 and 1900. Sales are down considerably even compared to long term trends and there is nothing typical about that type of slowdown. However reading the rest of the article does not give one the impression that sales are weak. Actually it does the opposite.
Jensen says the industry experienced a slower market toward the end of December -- which wasn't unexpected because of the holiday season -- but January was a solid one for activity.

He expects February to be a continuation of that pattern.

January sales were down 28% YOY and February may be down 35%. To me that does not appear to be a continuation of 'solid activity', although I do see a pattern.

Previous Year Sales from Bob Truman's site. **Estimated due to change in criteria.

2006 Feb: 1804**
2007 Feb: 1942

2008 Feb 1-22 : 934 (Projected total 1231 at current sales rate)

And from What's New
Feb 21
Feb sales are down 17% from the 7-year average.
Is it funny or sad that the article quotes the president of the Calgary Real Estate Boar, another REALTOR and shows an ad for REALTORs?


squidly77 said...

they are manipulating the numbers
taking sales from old criteria
and listings from sfh stats

its a true and unfortunate fact
that this industries poor reputation of dis-honesty prevails
the people associated with any form of family housing cant and never should be trusted period

as for the msm..yeah they are untrustworthy also however i believe that in the coming months
they will turn on there masters with a vengance
as they have in the US and drive nails deep into the soul of real estate speculating
ramens have made tons of money out of it..and they will be the worst hurt by its collapse
i know my views on how deep the fall will be in prices (60%) is very bearish and not all agree
but look how fast prices fell last fall
13% in 3 months and prices basically cant get back to there summer highs anymore

Anonymous said...

Squidly...are you throwing 60% out as a return to the pre-bubble average price (with a little over correction thrown in)? Or are you basing that on other factors?