Saturday, August 21, 2010

Real estate downturn hits the economy

The strong economic recovery highlighted in this post has stalled. I assumed a reversal in housing activity to slow down the entire economy but still remain in positive growth. That is now being tested with negative results showing up in some key reports.

Leading indicators (July 2010)

The composite leading index slowed to a 0.4% increase in July, after a gain of 0.7% in June. Most of the slowdown originated in the household sector, where three components fell. None of the seven other components decreased.

Jobs (July 2010)

The number of workers in the education sector was down by 65,000 in July. The large drop in educational services in July was spread across several occupation groups, including educational assistants, teachers and administrators in primary and secondary schools as well as custodial staff.

In July, employment decreased in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (-30,000), bringing employment in this industry back to its July 2009 level.

(I expect next months report to be better because the loss of 65,000 educational jobs is unlikely to be repeated)

GDP (May 2010)

Sales of existing homes fell significantly in several parts of the country in May, resulting in an 11.3% decrease in the output of real estate agents and brokers. This marked the fifth consecutive monthly decline in this industry.

The question is whether this is leading to a double dip recession or just a slowing in the rate of growth.


Radley77 said...

There seems to be more reflection in the Canadian bond market now with 10 year yields at lowest since the crisis. Housing starts are also down in the US, with high inventory levels in the resale market creating downward pressure on prices. Leading US indicators are also not looking good.

Carioca Canuck said...

There never was growth, or a strong economic recovery.

Artificially created government stimulus, along with manipulative data mining by "economists" and blatant lying by the special interest funded "news media" created the "Houdiniesque" figures for the illusion that was publicly touted for the last 24 months.

I am 50 years old and have never, ever, seen the economy this bad in Alberta. Not even in the early 80' many hard assets have deflated by 20-35% and/or sales of some have also gone down by 35-50%......and we're just at the top of the downward slope.

I have been here since 1973.......

BearClaw said...


It's on the wire now. Do you think there will be (or is) a double dip recession here and in the US?


By almost any metric the current Alberta recovery puts the economy in much better shape than the early 80s.

squidly77 said...

No Bearclaw your wrong-the Alberta economy is completely dead and this is indeed much worse than the eighties-we are just not seeing it yet.

Take for example the Alberta governments recent change to the immigration policy-they know what's coming.

I am not sure what recovery you speak off-Alberta's last mega project will wrap up in Oct-Albian sands-scotford upgrader will then be done. There are no more projects scheduled.

The lipstick will soon be off the Pig.

Carioca Canuck said...

Alberta recovery ????? On what planet are you Kevin.....ROTFLMAO !!!!!

Kool-Aid Kool-Aid tastes great !!!

Kool-Aid Kool-Aid can't wait !!!

Carioca Canuck said...

Forgot to add that both you and Rsdley weren't even born in the early 80's, therefore you can only look at words on paper as your point of reference. And I understand the problem that poses....

I was busy winding a $100MM mortgage portfolio down to $40MM for the National Trust Company......which is incidentally now called the Metropolitan Bar and Grill in TD Square.