Showing posts with label balanced market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label balanced market. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Quote of the Day

...It also says, "it has become a buyer's market." We've known that for eight months. It just emphasizes how long it takes to reverse people's attitudes.

Bob Truman, April 2 2008


However from Bob's What's New page there was no talk of a buyer's market. Only following the CREB mantra of a balanced market:

Feb 26
Balanced and stable market? Over the past 12 months, the median price has fluctuated within a 4% range of today's median price.

Feb 17
There
was lots of guessing last fall about where the market would go this year, from a complete crash to the usual spring frenzy of rising prices and quick sales. So far in 2008, it looks like the balanced market has returned. Homes are selling a lot faster than I would have predicted, and are selling a little closer to list price. In a balanced market, you could expect to see homes selling in an average of 45 days. While prices are up slightly, I don't expect them to go any higher. With all the inventory, it's surprising to see the prices rising at all. Affordability is an issue and we see the manifestation of that in the number of sales which are down considerably from the historical average.

Feb 6
As I predicted in 2007, we were going to have a balanced market this year, and that is exactly what's happening. There's lots to choose from, homes are selling in a reasonable amount of time, and there are very few bidding wars.

Jan 30
It speaks to the amazing strength of the Calgary economy that in spite of decreased sales and increased inventory, the price is remaining stable, or even rising slightly. If prices stay where they are now, and I fully expect them to, within a +/- 5% range, the buyers will appear. People have been waiting to see what would happen in January and now they know. My phone is busy, and many other realtors I've talked with, report plenty of interest. Sales will be down considerably this year compared to the frenzied activity of 2006 and 2007, but it seems to be a non-issue. When you compare this year's sales to the years when we had a normal balanced market, we're right on the average.

Jan 25
It's a nice change from the past two years for everyone. It's taking an average of 52 days to sell a house, and going down. Traditionally, it would take a house 45 - 50 days to sell. Prices should fluctuate slightly from month-to month, but I don't expect any dramatic rise or fall. March, April and May will return as the usual big months for sales. The balanced market, as predicted, is here.

Jan 21
Sales of single family homes are about equal with historical averages for the first 20 days of January. With 628 sales so far this year, we're one ahead of the 7-year average of 627. The last time we had anything close to a normal balanced market was in 2005, and that year there were 560 sales. The average price in 2005 was $268,306. That's a 69% gain in three years.

Jan 12
The average price of single family homes in Calgary has risen $10,000 in the first 11 days of 2008. The median price has dropped $4,000. Condo avg price is down $4,000, median is up $3,000. So far in 2008, it looks like the balanced market is here and functioning well.


And from 8 months ago:

Aug 13

If you're waiting to catch the bottom of the condo market, it's possible that you've already missed it. Condo prices are on the rise. Average and median prices are both higher than July. Condo prices dropped for two months in a row, but are now on the rebound Condo Daily Stats.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

(un)Balanced Market


There have been some assertions recently that Calgary is in a "balanced" market from Bob Truman's What's New page.
Jan 25
It's a nice change from the past two years for everyone. It's taking an average of 52 days to sell a house, and going down. Traditionally, it would take a house 45 - 50 days to sell. Prices should fluctuate slightly from month-to month, but I don't expect any dramatic rise or fall. March, April and May will return as the usual big months for sales. The balanced market, as predicted, is here.

Jan 21
Sales of single family homes are about equal with historical averages for the first 20 days of January. With 628 sales so far this year, we're one ahead of the 7-year average of 627. The last time we had anything close to a normal balanced market was in 2005, and that year there were 560 sales. The average price in 2005 was $268,306. That's a 69% gain in three years.

Jan 12
The average price of single family homes in Calgary has risen $10,000 in the first 11 days of 2008. The median price has dropped $4,000. Condo avg price is down $4,000, median is up $3,000. So far in 2008, it looks like the balanced market is here and functioning well.
What does balance market mean? Here is the definition of "balance"

A state of equilibrium or parity characterized by cancellation of all forces by equal opposing forces.

Looking at the stats this January has not seen a balance between buyers and sellers. Between Jan 1-21 the sales/new listing ratio is around 30%*. This is low even when going back to "balanced" years before the boom.

The CREB used to define balanced market as between 2-3.5 months inventory before starting to play games with charts. Andrew Kyle, determined that on Jan 2 Calgary was in a buyer's market by the month's inventory of around 4.5. How many months inventory are we at considering the sales between Jan 1-24 (Mike's site)?

Months inventory= (Inventory / Sales ) x (24/30)
SFH = (3992/798)*(24/30) = 4 months
Condo = (1926/327)*(24/30) = 4.71 months

Buyers market according to Months inventory.
Buyers market according to Sales to Listing ratio.
Buyer market.

Also looking at Andrew's site shows that Days on Market has decreased fairly quickly starting in January in past years. We may be following that pattern again as spring market heats up but higher in absolute terms.

*Sales/New Listings ratio may be in fact higher due to relistings
The (24/30) part of the equation is to adjust for only 24 days of sales.

Friday, November 2, 2007

CREB: The glass is full


The Calgary Real Estate Board reports on October sales. Their interpretation of the monthly 4.3% increase is quite the stretch.
“As we move through the fourth quarter of 2007, we are seeing a normal amount of market activity. The good news is that our October sales have increased somewhat over September sales, showing consumer confidence in the real estate market as well as in Calgary’s over all strong economy,” remarked CREB® President Ron Stanners. “This is also a reflection of Albertan’s belief in the strength of our energy industry. With the broad selection of properties available today, buyers can select their dream home through the MLS®. Home owners, by pricing their homes competitively with the guidance of their REALTOR®, can anticipate a quicker sale,” Stanners continued.
However sales are down 9.1% when compared to last October. Those October 2006 sales were down 19.7% when compared to 2005.

Here is the data:

Oct 2007
SFH: 1113
Condo: 501
Total: 1614
MOM: 4.3%
YOY: -9.1%

Sept 2007
SFH: 1064
Condo: 483
Total: 1547

Oct 2006
SFH: 1241*
Condo: 535*
Total: 1776
YOY: -19.7%

Oct 2005
SFH: 1512
Condo: 699
Total: 2211

*These number in the October 2006 under 'City' report were 1245 and 537. The 2005 stats are from this report as well.

Update: The Balanced Market label is still outside the range as covered in an earlier post.