...It also says, "it has become a buyer's market." We've known that for eight months. It just emphasizes how long it takes to reverse people's attitudes.
Bob Truman, April 2 2008
However from Bob's What's New page there was no talk of a buyer's market. Only following the CREB mantra of a balanced market:
Balanced and stable market? Over the past 12 months, the median price has fluctuated within a 4% range of today's median price.
was lots of guessing last fall about where the market would go this year, from a complete crash to the usual spring frenzy of rising prices and quick sales. So far in 2008, it looks like the balanced market has returned. Homes are selling a lot faster than I would have predicted, and are selling a little closer to list price. In a balanced market, you could expect to see homes selling in an average of 45 days. While prices are up slightly, I don't expect them to go any higher. With all the inventory, it's surprising to see the prices rising at all. Affordability is an issue and we see the manifestation of that in the number of sales which are down considerably from the historical average.
As I predicted in 2007, we were going to have a balanced market this year, and that is exactly what's happening. There's lots to choose from, homes are selling in a reasonable amount of time, and there are very few bidding wars.
It speaks to the amazing strength of the Calgary economy that in spite of decreased sales and increased inventory, the price is remaining stable, or even rising slightly. If prices stay where they are now, and I fully expect them to, within a +/- 5% range, the buyers will appear. People have been waiting to see what would happen in January and now they know. My phone is busy, and many other realtors I've talked with, report plenty of interest. Sales will be down considerably this year compared to the frenzied activity of 2006 and 2007, but it seems to be a non-issue. When you compare this year's sales to the years when we had a normal balanced market, we're right on the average.
It's a nice change from the past two years for everyone. It's taking an average of 52 days to sell a house, and going down. Traditionally, it would take a house 45 - 50 days to sell. Prices should fluctuate slightly from month-to month, but I don't expect any dramatic rise or fall. March, April and May will return as the usual big months for sales. The balanced market, as predicted, is here.
Sales of single family homes are about equal with historical averages for the first 20 days of January. With 628 sales so far this year, we're one ahead of the 7-year average of 627. The last time we had anything close to a normal balanced market was in 2005, and that year there were 560 sales. The average price in 2005 was $268,306. That's a 69% gain in three years.
The average price of single family homes in Calgary has risen $10,000 in the first 11 days of 2008. The median price has dropped $4,000. Condo avg price is down $4,000, median is up $3,000. So far in 2008, it looks like the balanced market is here and functioning well.
And from 8 months ago:
If you're waiting to catch the bottom of the condo market, it's possible that you've already missed it. Condo prices are on the rise. Average and median prices are both higher than July. Condo prices dropped for two months in a row, but are now on the rebound Condo Daily Stats.