Friday, April 4, 2008

Compare the words with the numbers

The Following are some recent statements from the REALTORs association of Edmonton regarding inventory and sales compared to the numbers provided in their press releases.

The current inventory of residential properties is now 7,094 homes. The inventory will decrease through the year but the wide choice of properties will have a dampening effect on prices offsetting increased demand from in-migration and economic growth. Condominiums are expected to become a stronger option (especially for first time buyers) because of the lower price point.

The total number of residential sales in 2008 will probably drop slightly from 2007 levels. Perras expects that 19,100 residential properties will sell through the MLS® in 2008. There were 20,544 sales in 2007.

Marc Perras,REALTORS Association of Edmonton, Jan 9, 2008

Dec 2007 Stats
Inventory: 7094
Sales: 857 (-20% YOY)

“Near record January sales indicate that housing sales will remain strong in the Edmonton area as buyers and sellers adjust to the new pricing levels,”

Marc Perras,REALTORS Association of Edmonton, Feb 5, 2008

Jan 2008 Stats
Inventory: 7352
Sales: 1227 (-21% YOY)

“We predicted that sales would be on par with the last ‘normal’ year that we had in 2005. So far the market is behaving as we anticipated.” The number of available residential properties listed on the MLS® at the end of February was up 12.7% from the previous month at 8,284 properties.

Marc Perras, REALTORS Association of Edmonton, March 4, 2008

Feb 2008 Stats
Inventory: 8284
Sales: 1287 (-32% YOY)

"Now is the time to be buying," said Marc Perras, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. "The selection of available homes is very high and prices will increase by year end as inventory levels drop.

Marc Perras, REALTORS Association of Edmonton, April 3, 2008

Mar 2008 Stats
Inventory: 9464
Sales: 1557 (-34% YOY)
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Any ideas how EREB determined how inventory will drop? And when? Sales/Listing Ratio is at 37%. Inventory is rising at a rate similar to last year which didn't peak until September. See chart from Sheldon's blog.

7 comments:

Jim_s said...

I've got an idea how they came up with the prediction.

Flip a coin:
Heads → prices rise, inventory falls

Tails → inventory falls, prices rise

-

Anonymous said...

the man is either panic stricken or he simply dosnt have a clue
much the same as bt

squid

Pierre said...

Pretty tough to make bold predictions like that $ales$guy does. I'd be conservative and don't expect inventory to come down before october-december timeline.
Who can predict the future?
Did Nostradamus seen this in his pooh way back when? he he...

chopper said...

Squid said "the man is either panic stricken or he simply dosnt have a clue
much the same as bt"


Squid, was it you that said we'd see $160,000 avg price at the end of Feb 2008? The actual price was$470,000. Now that was off just a bit!

In jan you said "another 10% price crash will occur by end of march.its in the bag"

Which price/bag you talkin' about? Couldn't have been avg price. It's up about 5%.

bt(I assume your referring to Bob Truman) said we'd have a 5% price fluctuation this year. Turns out he's right on.

Why you criticizing the accurate predictions of others when yours are so bad?

Anonymous said...

a lot of homes have had large price reductions
1500 sq ft two story homes in hidden valley and other outlying areas have easily fallen 70-$100,000...this would equate into a 15-20% price reduction
condos have been hit extremely hard and there prices will continue to deteriorate further as the year wears on
if you want to call a city which has a population of a million people and has 13,000 homes for sale a sellers market..go ahead

calgarys market is in horrible condition and its not a matter of if but when she finally falls

Pierre said...

Calgary's housing and Real Estate is 25% overpriced compared to Edmonton:
http://dcnonl.com/article/id27161

More evidence:

http://pricedoutinedmonton.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

ctv