March - “There are lots of stories about the slowdown or reversal of certain American housing markets,” said Pratt. “But all markets are local and Edmonton is unique in that the fundamentals of low interest rates, strong demand, low inventory, steady in-migration and high consumer confidence are still driving our local economy.”
April - “Price increases may moderate slightly as the market returns to pre-boom levels but I do not anticipate that actual prices will decrease.”
May - “With the average price of a single family dwelling rising by over $400 a day, you need the latest market figures that only a REALTOR® can provide.”
June - “The fundamentals of the Edmonton market are still strong and should sustain steadily rising prices for all classes of property,”
August - “REALTORS® are optimistic and see any price dips as temporary and within the normal range for this market.”
November - “As the current listings become sold or are withdrawn the current inventory will drop. As we move into the spring with a more normal inventory, we expect that prices will again begin to rise slowly,"
Update (thanks rj):
Added another chart based on the quote found in the Edmonton Journal April 4, 2007.
This chart compares the prediction made by the EREB after March stats were released to what has actually happened.In only the first three months of this year, average home prices have climbed 12.4 per cent, so Pratt has abandoned her earlier forecast of a 15 per cent increase for the full year.
"We're predicting that prices will continue to rise until August, at four to five per cent per month, then at two per cent per month," she said today.
8 comments:
Good site, much appreciated.
How about this prediction from the April 4 Edmonton Journal:
'In only the first three months of this year, average home prices have climbed 12.4 per cent, so Pratt has abandoned her earlier forecast of a 15 per cent increase for the full year.
"We're predicting that prices will continue to rise until August, at four to five per cent per month, then at two per cent per month," she said today'
http://tinyurl.com/2oxjdr
Bearclaw,
Awesome site. Keep up the good work!
Good stuff! Keep it coming!
Excellent site Bearclaw.
I especially like your chart of the Real Estate Industries price forecast and reality.
Even when there was the growing glut of inventory, she provided 'analysis' that is not a service to anyone.
Not a service to sellers, who may have escaped the market earlier if they had valid information; not a service to buyers, who may have been able to get a better deal later; and not a service to REALTORS, who have seens sales volumes drop off, therefore reducing REALTOR commission.
If CREB and EREB provided better analysis it would serve all three parties better. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that if supply is greater than demand, their will be price corrections. In fact I have helped to quantize the amount of price drops by this function of price vs. absorption rate (see below).
It is to prove a point, that supply/demand will trump whatever Carolyn Pratt's predictions are.
-----------------------------
Function to predict price change/month from absorption rate:
http://tinyurl.com/yo9l77
------------------------------
Monthly Price Change = -8401*(Month End Inventory)/(Monthly Sales) + 23186
**or**
Monthly Price Change = -8401*(Absorption Rate) + 23186
Bearclaw,
Thanks for the second chart - it very neatly captures the inaccuracy of the prediction.
I saw this article in San Diego... eerily familiar to Edmonton.
http://tinyurl.com/2tw68w
Excellent charts
Can you please just link the sources of the quotes. Then this blog article will be absolutely perfect
Looking forward to reading more of your blogs
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