Thursday, January 3, 2008

CREB: Motivational Analysis

The Calgary Real Estate Board provided some analysis of 2007 sales in their December report.
“As we can see from the final numbers in 2007, sales have definitely held steady. In my opinion this can only point to two things; consumer confidence and stability in the market place. Calgarians continue to have confidence in our economy and real estate market”, remarked CREB® President, Ron Stanners.
Consumer confidence and stability? The chart below show the difference in total sales each month when compared to 2006. For both condos and homes sales become weaker as the year went on. By comparing to the same month in the previous year it shows a decline that is independent of seasonality.

Radley77, a regular bubble poster, contributed some Calgary charts. These really show how unprecedented the recent boom has been. Thanks!


Anonymous said...

good one bear..ereb should be out tommorow


Radley77 said...

Good to see you found a home for my graphs.

I have a couple more: if you are interested in posting them on your website I'd be more than happy for you to give them a permanent home.


Calgary historical house prices to household income ratio

Carrying Costs for Calgary House Prices

Probability of a Canadian recession approximately 1 in 8

Radley77 said...

I guess it is all my personal analysis of the housing market. But it all leads me to the same conclusions.

1) Price to rent ratios indicate severe overvaluations.
2) Carrying costs are in an unsustainable territory.
3) Collapse of asset bubbles often lead to recession.
4) Canadian recession indicators are higher than they've been since the last recession.
5) House prices are substantially above long term trends.

All this information indicates, that the recent price corrections probably aren't over. In my opinion, it will take several years or up to a decade to reach new highs.

Some of this information helps show how this asset bubble is different from other cycles. Particularly in the aberration of price to rent ratios, and price to household income ratios.

Anonymous said...

Wow, fantastic stuff, great graphs!