From Garth Turner's recent post (emphasis mine)
The main point is that real estate here is grossly overvalued and, as I’ve tried to underscore in the last two posts, the folks who don’t understand that are destined to relive the experiences of others. Yes, the market will be lower in a year or two than it is now, but I’m not expecting a 40% decline with foreclosures and abandoned blocks of McMansions. What happened in Vegas will stay in Vegas.
Nonetheless, Canadians will taste the bitter remedy of negative equity which has been forced down the throat of 23 million Americans. Those who bought most recently, at the highest levels, and with extreme leverage, are at greatest risk. The dangers we face have been well articulated here and will logically result in a 15% decline in the national average house price. In Toronto, maybe less. In Calgary and Kelowna, more. In Vancouver, may God be with us.
I think a 15% national decline is likely, especially with the price gains of 2009 considered.Anyway, I was surprised to see such a mild nationwide correction prediction from Garth. I wonder how some of the blog dogs will react?