Alberta Population Report Q4 2010

The Alberta population report for the Q4 2010 was released last month here.

On a quarterly basis Alberta's population grew by 0.21% in Q4 2010.

7,249 natural growth (births - deaths)
2,510 net interprovincial migration
4,633 net international migration
-6,725 net non-permanent residents (!)


The exodus of non-permanent residents was offset by international and interprovincial immigration.

Alberta Population Report Q3 2010

The Alberta population report for the Q3 2010 was released last week here.

On a quarterly basis Alberta's population grew by 0.38% in Q3 2010.

8,267 natural growth (births - deaths)
1,155 net interprovincial migration
6,361 net international migration
-1,643 net non-permanent residents


While the Alberta population growth remains positive and higher than the Canadian average it is much slower than the boom year of 2006 due to lower inter provincial migration. International immigration and a higher natural increase has offset this somewhat. This is evident when comparing recent figures with those in 2006.

On a quarterly basis Alberta's population grew by 1.12% in Q3 2006.

6,400 natural growth (births - deaths)
16,729 net interprovincial migration
4,775 net international migration
2,795 net non permanent residence

Canadian Demographics and Housing

In the past I have covered some topics on housing in more depth to show a more complex and less dire reality than what some others are portraying.

One example is where I showed Garth Turner's model of a typical Canadian home buyer as exaggerated.

Another where I point out some inaccuracy regarding the systematic risk of the CMHC. (here and here)

In this post I will look at demographics and housing with this chart from the Alberta Bubble Blog as a starting point.


The conclusion is pretty clear. An aging population will lead to lower economic activity and lower demand for housing. There are a couple of details to indicate a less severe impact than implied in this graphic.

First, look at how top heavy the age distribution of the chart. It's because lower birth rates as compared to the baby boom.

But there is more to the story. At the peak in 1960 there were 479,000 births while this chart shows 540,000 people at the peak age range of 45 (in 2006). Immigration has had a role to play here otherwise this age group would have decreased. Consider the components of population growth in this chart from Statistics Canada.


Since immigration has made up a portion of population growth the pyramid will be skewed upwards. The portion of immigrants among the newborns only includes those who come to Canada within that year. In contrast those age 30 include immigrants who have come to Canada over the last 30 years at different ages.

The lower numbers represented among 0-15 age group compared to 16-30 years has more do do with immigration than declining birth rates. That is why I disagree with observation "D" in the chart "2011 to 2026 will witness a sharp decrease in the 20 - 35 year old cohort". Statistics Canada recently projected this age range will increase from 7.16 million in 2011 to 7.27 million in 2026. This was using their medium growth assumptions which I found to be totally reasonable.


I also disagree that demographics will necessarily result in an absolute drop in aggregate demand (housing or otherwise). It is true boomers represent the largest demographic and they are currently in their years of peak demand. This may be offset by a population that is still growing due to longer life expectancies, slightly higher birth rates and immigration.


One graphic used on the chart is the shift in housing demand over the next 15 years. It shows boomers will go from living alone in a 1800 sq ft single family home to assisted living space of 500 sq ft 15 years later. This definitely does not represent the group as a whole. For an alternative example consider 50 year old boomer parents with children in their late teens. They may have a house which is too big for them in 20-30 years when they require assisted living but their children will have formed households of their own long before then.

What else is not mentioned, but included in statistics Canada's current projections is an increase in the birth rate. Over the past year there were 381,000 births in Canada, compared to 338,000 in 2006. Surprisingly, this is only 20% fewer in absolute terms as the peak of the baby boom.

Finally, being this is an Albertan blog and all, I have to point out that it's different here. Note the higher proportion of younger people and mini baby-boom.

Alberta Population Report

The Alberta population report for the Q2 2001 was released today here.

On a quarterly basis Alberta's population grew by 0.5%.

8,436 natural growth (births - deaths)
2,820 net interprovincial migration
8,035 net international migration
-753 net non-permanent residents

Calgary Census 2010

In the last post Radley commented on the low population growth in Calgary from the 2010 census.

Calgary’s population grew from 1,065,455 in April 2009 to 1,071,515 in April 2010. This represents an increase of 0.57%. This is the lowest percentage of growth experienced since 1984 when the city experienced an overall loss in population.

That's quite surprising considering the entire province had a rate of increase three times higher at 1.60%. See Alberta population report report for Q1 2010 I covered in this post.

The census has yearly statistics on the number of residential dwellings and population from which we can calculate a ratio to measure the amount of supply.


This chart shows population, total dwellings and the ratio of people per dwelling. This ratio was 2.54 in 1999 and fell sharply to 2.43 in 2004. The economy was doing well during this period letting Gen-Xers establish households. In addition to this there was low interest rates and the start of a housing optimism after many years of stagnation. I was surprised it was fairly steady throughout the boom years (2005-2007). During this time there was a lot of construction but also a lot of population growth.

This chart shows the change of population, and number of new dwellings each year. It looks like there was some reduction of supply in 2009 as population increased while construction dropped substantially. This reversed in 2010 as slow population growth lead to more supply on a relative basis.

Update:

Housing Analysis uncovered a Bank of Canada report on housing supply. It was full of incomprehensible formulas but had this comment on supply across the provinces:

Using aggregate data for Canada, our model suggests that the housing stock was overbuilt at the end of 2008 by 2 per cent. This gap is likely to close slowly by the end of 2018, given the projections of the key variables in the model. Provincial models indicate that there was likely overbuilding by the end of 2008 in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. On the other hand, the level of housing stock in Nova Scotia, Manitoba, and (surprisingly) Alberta fell back below what was consistent with fundamentals, after having risen above the level a couple of years earlier.

I wouldn't be as bold to say supply is below trend but it is difficult to make the case there is a large construction glut in Alberta. Having said that weakness in the housing market could persistent if migration remains low (or negative).

Alberta Population Statistics

Alberta population statistics were released today for the first quarter by Alberta finance here. Interprovincial migration was slightly positive for the quarter following two quarters of net loss to other provinces (mostly B.C.). The inflow from the rest of Canada is still down considerably from the boom and international migration remains strongly positive.

Natural population growth is relatively high compared to other provinces and resulted in a total population increase of 12,987. CMHC's Housing Now reports there were 5,651 starts during this same period. Without going into more detail it is difficult to judge whether this is out of line. It seems high with only 2.29 people per start. However it neglects housing that has been replaced and these starts include smaller multi-family dwellings. There does not appear to be rampant overbuilding but I would guess there will be a slowdown in construction due to weaker prices and migration.